Why this pick: AC Milan vs Lecce
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (AC Milan 10, Lecce 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
AC MilanLecce
1.77
xG per 90
0.95
1.54
npxG per 90
0.95
15.5
PPDA
12.5
7.9
Deep completions per 90
3.4
1.73
xPTS per 90
0.80
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
AC Milan and Lecce recent form
AC Milan
3W 3D 0L
Lecce
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AC Milan at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.90
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
Lecce away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-5
- Win rate
- 22%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 9
League matches this season before kick-off: AC Milan at home only, Lecce away only.
AC Milan vs Lecce head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: AC Milan 7 · draws 2 · Lecce 0.
78%
22%
0%
AC MilanDrawsLecce
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-23 | AC Milan | 3-0 | Lecce | Coppa Italia |
| 2025-08-29 | Lecce | 0-2 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2025-03-08 | Lecce | 2-3 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2024-09-27 | AC Milan | 3-0 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2024-04-06 | AC Milan | 3-0 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2023-11-11 | Lecce | 2-2 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2023-04-23 | AC Milan | 2-0 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2023-01-14 | Lecce | 2-2 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2020-06-22 | Lecce | 1-4 | AC Milan | Serie A |
Before and after this match
- AC Milan, previous: Como v AC Milan analysis
- AC Milan, next: Roma – AC Milan, 2026-01-25
- Lecce, previous: Inter vs Lecce prediction
- Lecce, next: Lecce vs Lazio prediction