Updated

Italy · 2026/27 season

Serie A Football Predictions

Model-driven 1X2, over/under, BTTS and correct-score probabilities for every Serie A fixture — 20 clubs, 83 of 380 matches played, 109 fixtures predicted so far this season. Built from expected-goals ratings and de-vigged market odds, never from tips.

Teams 20 in the 2026/27 season
Matches played 83 of 380 scheduled this season
Prediction pages 17 fixtures in our publication window
Fixtures predicted 109 so far this season

Upcoming Serie A fixtures

17 fixtures in our publication window — every row opens the full prediction; 43 more scheduled later this season.

Serie A fixtures in our publication window with our pick, edge and best market odds
MatchLeaguePickEdgeOursMarketConf.Best odds
AC Milan vs BolognaSerie AA Serie A AC MilanOur prob 54%Best odds 1.78 -2% 54% 56% A 1.78
Venezia vs InterSerie AA Serie A InterOur prob 69%Best odds 1.38 -2% 69% 71% A 1.38
Parma Calcio 1913 vs UdineseSerie AA Serie A UdineseOur prob 35%Best odds 2.77 0% 35% 35% A 2.77
Genoa vs JuventusSerie AA Serie A JuventusOur prob 55%Best odds 1.79 0% 55% 55% A 1.79
Monza vs NapoliSerie AA Serie A NapoliOur prob 52%Best odds 1.82 -3% 52% 55% A 1.82
Frosinone vs LecceSerie AA Serie A FrosinoneOur prob 55%Best odds 1.92 -2% 55% 56% A 1.92
Fiorentina vs AtalantaSerie AA Serie A FiorentinaOur prob 43%Best odds 2.30 0% 43% 43% A 2.30
Bologna vs MonzaSerie AA Serie A BolognaOur prob 50%Best odds 1.81 -4% 50% 54% A 1.81
Udinese vs RomaSerie AA Serie A RomaOur prob 64%Best odds 1.63 +3% 64% 61% A 1.63
AC Milan vs InterSerie AA Serie A InterOur prob 46%Best odds 2.17 +1% 46% 46% A 2.17
Lazio vs CagliariSerie AA Serie A LazioOur prob 65%Best odds 1.52 -2% 65% 67% A 1.52
Sassuolo vs FiorentinaSerie AA Serie A FiorentinaOur prob 40%Best odds 2.50 +1% 40% 40% A 2.50
Juventus vs NapoliSerie AA Serie A JuventusOur prob 53%Best odds 1.87 +1% 53% 52% A 1.87
Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913Serie AA Serie A AtalantaOur prob 64%Best odds 1.50 -2% 64% 66% A 1.50
Frosinone vs TorinoSerie AA Serie A FrosinoneOur prob 43%Best odds 2.29 0% 43% 43% A 2.29
Lecce vs GenoaSerie AA Serie A LecceOur prob 35%Best odds 2.83 0% 35% 35% A 2.83
Como vs VeneziaSerie AA Serie A ComoOur prob 70%Best odds 1.38 -1% 70% 71% A 1.38

Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick (the Ours column) — our model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; Market = that de-vigged market probability. Edge = Ours minus Market; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.

Serie A table

2026/27 season · computed from played results — ranked by points, then goal difference, then goals scored. Form: last five, newest first.

Serie A table from played results
#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Lazio 9 810 227 +15 25
2 Inter 8 710 2310 +13 22
3 Roma 9 630 238 +15 21
4 Como 9 621 178 +9 20
5 AC Milan 8 530 167 +9 18
6 Frosinone 8 422 1713 +4 14
7 Juventus 8 422 118 +3 14
8 Torino 9 414 1414 0 13
9 Cagliari 9 414 813 -5 13
10 Napoli 8 323 1310 +3 11
11 Atalanta 8 314 1415 -1 10
12 Lecce 8 305 914 -5 9
13 Bologna 8 224 810 -2 8
14 Sassuolo 9 225 1422 -8 8
15 Monza 8 215 1518 -3 7
16 Genoa 8 215 613 -7 7
17 Udinese 8 116 918 -9 4
18 Fiorentina 8 116 919 -10 4
19 Parma Calcio 1913 8 116 515 -10 4
20 Venezia 8 107 617 -11 3

P = played, GD = goal difference, Pts = points. Not an imported table: it is rebuilt from the results in our database, so it may lag the official one by a match.

Serie A trends

How Serie A matches actually ended in the 2026/27: 83 played matches. A record of results, not a forecast.

Home wins 47% 39 of 83 matches +8 pts vs 2025/26 (380)
Away wins 36% 30 of 83 matches +1 pts vs 2025/26 (380)
Over 2.5 goals 60% 50 of 83 matches +14 pts vs 2025/26 (380)
Both teams scored 58% 48 of 83 matches +13 pts vs 2025/26 (380)

Change is in percentage points against the 2025/26 season (380 played matches).

Top Serie A teams by model rating

The attack and defence rates our model feeds into every prediction, as of the last update. Net = attack − defence, in goals per match.

Inter
#1
Net rating
+0.96
Attack
2.26
Defence
1.29
Form NextVenezia (A) · 28 Oct
Juventus
#2
Net rating
+0.86
Attack
1.76
Defence
0.90
Form NextGenoa (A) · 28 Oct
Como
#3
Net rating
+0.82
Attack
2.24
Defence
1.42
Form NextVenezia (H) · 1 Nov

Rates are decay-weighted over each team’s last 15 completed matches — xG where the window is xG-backed, goals otherwise — and shrunk towards the league average; a higher attack and a lower defence rate are better. Form: last five results, newest first.

Top scorers in Serie A

From the Serie A scoring charts this season — goals first, then assists. Not a full squad list.

  • Gustavo VarelaMonza 7 G 1 A
  • D. MalenRoma 7 G 1 A
  • A. RaimondoFrosinone 7 G 0 A
  • N. KrstovićAtalanta 6 G 2 A
  • M. ThuramInter 5 G 2 A
  • D. MaldiniCagliari 5 G 0 A
  • T. DouvikasComo 5 G 0 A
  • A. RabiotAC Milan 4 G 3 A

Recent Serie A results

Last 6 played — what we predicted and what happened.

Recent Serie A results with our pre-match pick
DateMatchOur pickOur probScorePick
Torino vs ComoOur pick Como · 53% Como to win 53% 1–3 Correct
Roma vs CagliariOur pick Roma · 72% Roma to win 72% 4–2 Correct
Sassuolo vs LazioOur pick Lazio · 44% Lazio to win 44% 2–6 Correct
Udinese vs AC MilanOur pick AC Milan · 52% AC Milan to win 52% 0–2 Correct
Lecce vs JuventusOur pick Juventus · 64% Juventus to win 64% 0–2 Correct
Atalanta vs FrosinoneOur pick Atalanta · 46% Atalanta to win 46% 4–4 Missed

Our pick = the 1X2 selection we published before kick-off, with the probability we gave it; Correct/Missed compares that pick with the final result.

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