Why this pick: Arsenal vs Brighton
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Arsenal 10, Brighton 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
ArsenalBrighton
1.92
xG per 90
1.48
1.85
npxG per 90
1.48
11.8
PPDA
9.4
9.7
Deep completions per 90
7.6
2.22
xPTS per 90
1.24
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Arsenal and Brighton recent form
Arsenal
4W 1D 1L
Brighton
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arsenal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-1-0
- Win rate
- 88%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.38
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 8
Brighton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-4
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 8
League matches this season before kick-off: Arsenal at home only, Brighton away only.
Arsenal vs Brighton head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Arsenal 4 · draws 2 · Brighton 2.
50%
25%
25%
ArsenalDrawsBrighton
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-29 | Arsenal | 2-0 | Brighton | League Cup |
| 2025-01-04 | Brighton | 1-1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2024-08-31 | Arsenal | 1-1 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2024-04-06 | Brighton | 0-3 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2023-12-17 | Arsenal | 2-0 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2023-05-14 | Arsenal | 0-3 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2022-12-31 | Brighton | 2-4 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2022-11-09 | Arsenal | 1-3 | Brighton | League Cup |
Before and after this match
- Arsenal, previous: Everton vs Arsenal: odds and pick
- Arsenal, next: Arsenal – Aston Villa, 2025-12-30
- Brighton, previous: Brighton vs Sunderland: odds and pick
- Brighton, next: West Ham vs Brighton prediction