Why this pick: Arsenal vs Aston Villa
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Arsenal 10, Aston Villa 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
ArsenalAston Villa
1.97
xG per 90
1.61
1.89
npxG per 90
1.61
10.2
PPDA
15.7
9.1
Deep completions per 90
6.6
2.22
xPTS per 90
1.36
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Arsenal and Aston Villa recent form
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arsenal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-1-0
- Win rate
- 89%
- Goals for / match
- 2.44
- Goals against / match
- 0.44
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 9
Aston Villa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-2
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.56
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 9
League matches this season before kick-off: Arsenal at home only, Aston Villa away only.
Arsenal vs Aston Villa head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Arsenal 5 · draws 1 · Aston Villa 3.
56%
11%
33%
ArsenalDrawsAston Villa
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Aston Villa | 2-1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2025-01-18 | Arsenal | 2-2 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2024-08-24 | Aston Villa | 0-2 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2024-04-14 | Arsenal | 0-2 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2023-12-09 | Aston Villa | 1-0 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2023-02-18 | Aston Villa | 2-4 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2022-08-31 | Arsenal | 2-1 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2022-03-19 | Aston Villa | 0-1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2021-10-22 | Arsenal | 3-1 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
Before and after this match
- Arsenal, previous: Arsenal – Brighton, 2025-12-27
- Arsenal, next: Bournemouth v Arsenal analysis
- Aston Villa, previous: Chelsea v Aston Villa analysis
- Aston Villa, next: Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest: odds and pick