Updated

Premier League · Matchday 7

Leeds vs Manchester United

· Elland Road, Leeds· Referee Darren England

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Leeds to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LeedsDrawManchester United

Why this pick: Leeds vs Manchester United

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Leeds 10, Manchester United 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

LeedsManchester United
1.44 xG per 90 1.97
1.36 npxG per 90 1.86
10.5 PPDA 12.3
3.7 Deep completions per 90 10.4
1.20 xPTS per 90 1.64

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Leeds vs Manchester United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLeedsDrawManchester United
Model41%23%36%
Market41%26%33%
Published41%26%34%
Edge0%-1%+1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Leeds vs Manchester United odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Leeds, 29 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.45Now 2.34 -0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Leeds2.452.34-0.11
Draw3.503.61+0.11
Manchester United2.152.92+0.77

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Leeds and Manchester United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.93Leeds
1.90Manchester United
Total expected goals
3.84
Attack rating (Leeds / Manchester United)
1.15 / 1.23
Defence rating (Leeds / Manchester United)
1.25 / 1.10

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Leeds vs Manchester United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.1% 2.6% 3.5% 2.2% 1.7% 1 2.8% 8.7% 7.2% 4.6% 3.4% 2 4.0% 7.7% 7.3% 4.6% 3.4% 3 2.7% 5.2% 4.9% 3.1% 2.3% 4+ 2.2% 4.2% 4.0% 2.5% 1.9%

Rows: Leeds goals. Columns: Manchester United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Leeds vs Manchester United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 75%
Over 3.5 55%
Both teams to score
75%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Leeds vs Manchester United

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Leeds41%2.45
Draw26%3.90
Manchester United34%2.98
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575%1.33
Under 2.525%4.03
Both teams to scoreYes75%1.33
No25%4.01
Double chance1X (Leeds or draw)66%1.51
12 (either side)74%1.34
X2 (draw or Manchester United)59%1.69
Handicap -1Leeds win by 2+24%4.25
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Leeds and Manchester United recent form

Leeds 1W 3D 2L
Manchester United 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Leeds at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.

Manchester United away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • 80% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Leeds at home only, Manchester United away only.

Injuries & availability

Leeds absences

  • D. James back injury
  • J. Rodon muscle injury
  • M. Joseph knee injury

Manchester United absences

  • B. Sesko leg injury
  • K. Mainoo injury
  • L. Shaw injury
  • M. Ugarte knee injury
  • N. Mazraoui injury
  • P. Dorgu hamstring injury
  • T. Heaton abdominal strain

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Leeds lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 J. Trafford
  2. 5 T. Muharemović
  3. 30 N. Elvedi
  4. 24 J. Justin
  5. 3 G. Gudmundsson
  6. 22 A. Tanaka
  7. 4 E. Ampadu
  8. 2 J. Bogle
  9. 19 N. Okafor
  10. 18 A. Stach
  11. 9 D. Calvert-Lewin

Bench: S. Longstaff, H. Wilson, B. Aaronson, L. Nmecha, J. Bijol, M. Zetterer, J. Bahoya, M. Bard, I. Gruev

Manchester United lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 S. Lammens
  2. 2 Diogo Dalot
  3. 6 Lisandro Martínez
  4. 5 H. Maguire
  5. 15 L. Yoro
  6. 20 C. Baleba
  7. 17 Andrey Santos
  8. 16 A. Diallo
  9. 18 Y. Tielemans
  10. 8 Bruno Fernandes
  11. 19 B. Mbeumo

Bench: N. Mazraoui, M. de Ligt, M. Mount, M. Rashford, Matheus Cunha, J. Zirkzee, K. Darlow, S. Lacey, H. Amass

Leeds vs Manchester United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Leeds 1 · draws 5 · Manchester United 4.

LeedsDrawsManchester United
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-12Manchester United1-1LeedsFriendlies Clubs
2026-04-13Manchester United1-2LeedsPremier League
2026-01-04Leeds1-1Manchester UnitedPremier League
2025-07-19Manchester United0-0LeedsFriendlies Clubs
2023-07-12Manchester United2-0LeedsFriendlies Clubs
2023-02-12Leeds0-2Manchester UnitedPremier League
2023-02-08Manchester United2-2LeedsPremier League
2022-02-20Leeds2-4Manchester UnitedPremier League
2021-08-14Manchester United5-1LeedsPremier League
2021-04-25Leeds0-0Manchester UnitedPremier League

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match