Updated

Premier League · Matchday 8

Manchester United vs Bournemouth

· Old Trafford, Manchester· Referee Jarred Gillett

Full time0 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Bournemouth to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Manchester UnitedDrawBournemouth

Why this pick: Manchester United vs Bournemouth

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Manchester United 10, Bournemouth 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Manchester UnitedBournemouth
1.79 xG per 90 2.24
1.67 npxG per 90 2.24
13.4 PPDA 8.9
9.5 Deep completions per 90 9.2
1.40 xPTS per 90 2.01

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Manchester United vs Bournemouth: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceManchester UnitedDrawBournemouth
Model17%21%62%
Market43%26%31%
Published36%25%39%
Edge-6%-1%+8%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 1.19.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Bournemouth below our published probability: +7.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Manchester United vs Bournemouth odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bournemouth, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 4.42Now 3.10 -1.32
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Manchester United1.792.26+0.47
Draw4.363.68-0.68
Bournemouth4.423.10-1.32

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Manchester United and Bournemouth expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.19Manchester United
2.43Bournemouth
Total expected goals
3.62
Attack rating (Manchester United / Bournemouth)
1.15 / 1.56
Defence rating (Manchester United / Bournemouth)
1.26 / 0.68

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Manchester United vs Bournemouth score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.7% 5.0% 7.4% 6.0% 6.5% 1 2.0% 8.8% 9.3% 7.5% 8.1% 2 2.0% 4.8% 5.8% 4.7% 5.1% 3 0.8% 2.0% 2.4% 2.0% 2.1% 4+ 0.3% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9%

Rows: Manchester United goals. Columns: Bournemouth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Manchester United vs Bournemouth goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 71%
Over 3.5 50%
Both teams to score
66%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Manchester United vs Bournemouth

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Manchester United36%2.75
Draw25%4.03
Bournemouth39%2.57
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571%1.41
Under 2.529%3.46
Both teams to scoreYes66%1.51
No34%2.97
Double chance1X (Manchester United or draw)61%1.64
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Bournemouth)64%1.57
Handicap -1Bournemouth win by 2+42%2.40
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Manchester United and Bournemouth recent form

Manchester United 0W 3D 3L
Bournemouth 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Manchester United at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • 75% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Bournemouth away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Manchester United at home only, Bournemouth away only.

Injuries & availability

Manchester United absences

  • B. Sesko leg injury
  • K. Mainoo injury
  • L. Martinez muscle injury
  • L. Shaw injury
  • M. Rashford hip injury
  • M. Ugarte knee injury
  • P. Dorgu hamstring injury

Bournemouth absences

  • A. Scott thigh injury
  • A. Toth muscle injury
  • E. J. Kroupi foot injury
  • J. Araujo thigh injury
  • V. Milosavljevic lacking match fitness

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Manchester United lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 S. Lammens
  2. 26 A. Heaven
  3. 5 H. Maguire
  4. 15 L. Yoro
  5. 2 Diogo Dalot
  6. 20 C. Baleba
  7. 17 Andrey Santos
  8. 7 M. Mount
  9. 18 Y. Tielemans
  10. 16 A. Diallo
  11. 19 B. Mbeumo

Bench: N. Mazraoui, M. de Ligt, Lisandro Martínez, Bruno Fernandes, Matheus Cunha, J. Zirkzee, K. Darlow, S. Lacey, T. Fletcher

Bournemouth lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Đ. Petrović
  2. 3 A. Truffert
  3. 14 António Silva
  4. 5 J. Hill
  5. 15 A. Smith
  6. 4 L. Cook
  7. 12 T. Adams
  8. 16 M. Tavernier
  9. 19 J. Kluivert
  10. 37 Rayan
  11. 9 Evanilson

Bench: J. Soler, D. Brooks, R. Christie, B. Doak, B. Diakité, M. Di Gregorio, A. Adli, E. Kroupi, Á. Rodríguez

Manchester United vs Bournemouth head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Manchester United 4 · draws 4 · Bournemouth 2.

Manchester UnitedDrawsBournemouth
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-20Bournemouth2-2Manchester UnitedPremier League
2025-12-15Manchester United4-4BournemouthPremier League
2025-07-31Manchester United4-1BournemouthPremier League - Summer Series
2025-04-27Bournemouth1-1Manchester UnitedPremier League
2024-12-22Manchester United0-3BournemouthPremier League
2024-04-13Bournemouth2-2Manchester UnitedPremier League
2023-12-09Manchester United0-3BournemouthPremier League
2023-05-20Bournemouth0-1Manchester UnitedPremier League
2023-01-03Manchester United3-0BournemouthPremier League
2020-07-04Manchester United5-2BournemouthPremier League

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match