Updated

Premier League · Matchday 8

Sunderland vs Leeds

· Stadium of Light, Sunderland· Referee Stuart Attwell

Full time0 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Sunderland to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SunderlandDrawLeeds

Why this pick: Sunderland vs Leeds

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Sunderland 10, Leeds 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

SunderlandLeeds
1.64 xG per 90 1.39
1.39 npxG per 90 1.39
12.4 PPDA 10.1
6.0 Deep completions per 90 3.8
1.24 xPTS per 90 1.20

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Sunderland vs Leeds: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSunderlandDrawLeeds
Model47%24%29%
Market33%31%37%
Published36%29%35%
Edge+4%-2%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.53.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Sunderland below our published probability: +3.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sunderland vs Leeds odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sunderland, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 2.62Now 2.93 +0.31
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sunderland2.622.93+0.31
Draw3.303.10-0.20
Leeds2.502.60+0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sunderland and Leeds expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.88Sunderland
1.53Leeds
Total expected goals
3.41
Attack rating (Sunderland / Leeds)
1.01 / 1.11
Defence rating (Sunderland / Leeds)
1.12 / 1.22

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sunderland vs Leeds score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.4% 3.2% 3.5% 1.8% 1.0% 1 4.6% 10.5% 6.9% 3.5% 1.9% 2 5.9% 9.0% 6.9% 3.5% 1.9% 3 3.9% 5.9% 4.5% 2.3% 1.2% 4+ 3.0% 4.6% 3.5% 1.8% 1.0%

Rows: Sunderland goals. Columns: Leeds goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sunderland vs Leeds goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 68%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sunderland vs Leeds

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sunderland36%2.77
Draw29%3.43
Leeds35%2.88
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568%1.47
Under 2.532%3.12
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.45
No31%3.20
Double chance1X (Sunderland or draw)65%1.53
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Leeds)64%1.57
Handicap -1Sunderland win by 2+28%3.63
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Sunderland and Leeds recent form

Sunderland 2W 1D 3L
Leeds 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sunderland at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.33
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.

Leeds away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Sunderland at home only, Leeds away only.

Injuries & availability

Sunderland absences

  • D. Ballard muscle injury
  • K. Danso suspended
  • R. Mundle knee injury
  • T. Meunier muscle injury
  • W. Isidor injury

Leeds absences

  • A. Stach groin injury
  • D. Calvert-Lewin foot injury
  • J. Rodon muscle injury
  • M. Joseph knee injury
  • N. Okafor groin injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Sunderland lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 22 R. Roefs
  2. 17 Reinildo
  3. 13 L. O'Nien
  4. 20 N. Mukiele
  5. 32 T. Hume
  6. 27 N. Sadiki
  7. 34 G. Xhaka
  8. 28 E. Le Fée
  9. 11 C. Rigg
  10. 10 N. Angulo
  11. 9 B. Brobbey

Bench: D. Methalie, C. Talbi, O. Alderete, H. Diarra, Jules Ahoka, M. Ellborg, M. Fofana, J. Angulo, Timur Tuterov

Leeds lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 J. Trafford
  2. 5 T. Muharemović
  3. 15 J. Bijol
  4. 24 J. Justin
  5. 3 G. Gudmundsson
  6. 22 A. Tanaka
  7. 4 E. Ampadu
  8. 2 J. Bogle
  9. 11 B. Aaronson
  10. 10 H. Wilson
  11. 9 D. Calvert-Lewin

Bench: S. Longstaff, L. Nmecha, M. Zetterer, A. Stach, N. Okafor, J. Bahoya, M. Bard, I. Gruev, Alfie Cresswell

Sunderland vs Leeds head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Sunderland 3 · draws 4 · Leeds 3.

SunderlandDrawsLeeds
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-07-30Sunderland0-1LeedsPremier League - Summer Series
2026-03-03Leeds0-1SunderlandPremier League
2025-12-28Sunderland1-1LeedsPremier League
2025-02-17Leeds2-1SunderlandChampionship
2024-10-04Sunderland2-2LeedsChampionship
2024-04-09Leeds0-0SunderlandChampionship
2023-12-12Sunderland1-0LeedsChampionship
2018-04-07Leeds1-1SunderlandChampionship
2017-08-19Sunderland0-2LeedsChampionship
2015-01-04Sunderland1-0LeedsFA Cup

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match