Tottenham vs Coventry Prediction 19.10.2026

Why this pick: Tottenham vs Coventry

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Tottenham 10, Coventry 7). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

TottenhamCoventry

1.43 xG per 90 1.11

1.43 npxG per 90 0.98

7.8 PPDA 25.2

6.4 Deep completions per 90 3.2

1.49 xPTS per 90 0.92

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Tottenham vs Coventry: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Tottenham	Draw	Coventry
Model	47%	24%	29%
Market	61%	21%	17%
Published	58%	22%	20%
Edge	-4%	+1%	+3%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.53.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Tottenham vs Coventry odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Tottenham, 29 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 1.39Now 1.55 +0.16

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Tottenham	1.39	1.55	+0.16
Draw	4.20	4.50	+0.30
Coventry	4.90	5.50	+0.60

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Tottenham and Coventry expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.88Tottenham

1.53Coventry

Total expected goals: 3.41
Attack rating (Tottenham / Coventry): 1.12 / 1.17
Defence rating (Tottenham / Coventry): 1.06 / 1.09

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Tottenham vs Coventry score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.4% 3.2% 3.5% 1.8% 1.0% 1 4.6% 10.4% 6.9% 3.5% 1.9% 2 5.9% 9.0% 6.9% 3.5% 1.9% 3 3.9% 5.9% 4.5% 2.3% 1.2% 4+ 3.0% 4.6% 3.5% 1.8% 1.0%

Rows: Tottenham goals. Columns: Coventry goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Tottenham vs Coventry goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 88%

Over 2.5 68%

Over 3.5 47%

Both teams to score: 69%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Tottenham vs Coventry

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Tottenham	58%	1.73
	Draw	22%	4.55
	Coventry	20%	4.96
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	68%	1.47
	Under 2.5	32%	3.13
Both teams to score	Yes	69%	1.45
	No	31%	3.21
Double chance	1X (Tottenham or draw)	80%	1.25
	12 (either side)	78%	1.28
	X2 (draw or Coventry)	42%	2.37
Handicap -1	Tottenham win by 2+	28%	3.63
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Tottenham and Coventry recent form

Tottenham 0W 3D 3L

Coventry 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Tottenham at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-2
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.67
Goals against / match: 1.67
Clean sheets: 1 of 3

They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.

Coventry away

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-2
Win rate: 33%
Goals for / match: 0.33
Goals against / match: 1.33
Clean sheets: 1 of 3

They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Tottenham at home only, Coventry away only.