Updated

Premier League · Matchday 8

Chelsea vs Tottenham

· Stamford Bridge, London· Referee Chris Kavanagh

Full time0 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Chelsea to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ChelseaDrawTottenham

Why this pick: Chelsea vs Tottenham

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Chelsea 10, Tottenham 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

ChelseaTottenham
1.55 xG per 90 1.38
1.55 npxG per 90 1.38
14.1 PPDA 7.9
7.8 Deep completions per 90 6.6
1.16 xPTS per 90 1.51

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Chelsea vs Tottenham: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceChelseaDrawTottenham
Model48%24%28%
Market50%25%25%
Published50%25%26%
Edge-1%0%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.55.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Chelsea vs Tottenham odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Chelsea, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 1.75Now 1.91 +0.16
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Chelsea1.751.91+0.16
Draw4.373.87-0.50
Tottenham4.673.88-0.79

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Chelsea and Tottenham expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.96Chelsea
1.55Tottenham
Total expected goals
3.52
Attack rating (Chelsea / Tottenham)
1.23 / 1.09
Defence rating (Chelsea / Tottenham)
1.16 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Chelsea vs Tottenham score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.0% 2.9% 3.2% 1.7% 0.9% 1 4.3% 9.9% 6.7% 3.5% 1.9% 2 5.7% 8.9% 6.9% 3.6% 2.0% 3 3.9% 6.1% 4.7% 2.5% 1.3% 4+ 3.3% 5.1% 3.9% 2.0% 1.1%

Rows: Chelsea goals. Columns: Tottenham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Chelsea vs Tottenham goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 70%
Over 3.5 49%
Both teams to score
70%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Chelsea vs Tottenham

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Chelsea50%2.01
Draw25%4.07
Tottenham26%3.91
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570%1.43
Under 2.530%3.33
Both teams to scoreYes70%1.43
No30%3.35
Double chance1X (Chelsea or draw)74%1.34
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Tottenham)50%1.99
Handicap -1Chelsea win by 2+29%3.46
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Chelsea and Tottenham recent form

Chelsea 3W 1D 2L
Tottenham 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Chelsea at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
3.67
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 3.7 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.

Tottenham away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.33
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Chelsea at home only, Tottenham away only.

Injuries & availability

Chelsea absences

  • E. Emegha muscle injury
  • E. Martinez broken jawbone
  • J. Gittens ankle injury
  • P. Chavarria injury
  • R. James knee injury

Tottenham absences

  • muscle injury
  • D. Udogie knee injury
  • L. Bergvall knee injury
  • M. Mudryk ankle injury
  • R. Bentancur suspended
  • W. Odobert knee injury
  • X. Simons knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Chelsea lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 39 M. Penders
  2. 6 L. Colwill
  3. 5 M. Lacroix
  4. 34 Joshua Kofi Acheampong
  5. 21 J. Hato
  6. 14 J. Henderson
  7. 25 M. Caicedo
  8. 7 Pedro Neto
  9. 23 Geovany Tcherno Quenda
  10. 10 C. Palmer
  11. 17 M. Rogers

Bench: M. Palestra, W. Fofana, V. Barco, D. Welbeck, M. Gusto, T. Sharman-Lowe, M. Nicoll-Jazuli, Estêvão, R. Lavia

Tottenham lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 31 A. Kinský
  2. 3 A. Robertson
  3. 37 M. van de Ven
  4. 6 J. van Hecke
  5. 14 A. Gray
  6. 16 S. Tonali
  7. 18 Mateus Fernandes
  8. 11 M. Tel
  9. 10 J. Maddison
  10. 20 M. Kudus
  11. 22 Omar Marmoush

Bench: M. Senesi, C. Gallagher, D. Solanke, D. Kulusevski, Pedro Porro, B. Davies, M. Dúbravka, L. Williams-Barnett

Chelsea vs Tottenham head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Chelsea 7 · draws 1 · Tottenham 2.

ChelseaDrawsTottenham
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-01Chelsea1-2TottenhamFriendlies Clubs
2026-05-19Chelsea2-1TottenhamPremier League
2025-11-01Tottenham0-1ChelseaPremier League
2025-04-03Chelsea1-0TottenhamPremier League
2024-12-08Tottenham3-4ChelseaPremier League
2024-05-02Chelsea2-0TottenhamPremier League
2023-11-06Tottenham1-4ChelseaPremier League
2023-02-26Tottenham2-0ChelseaPremier League
2022-08-14Chelsea2-2TottenhamPremier League
2022-01-23Chelsea2-0TottenhamPremier League

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match