Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 6

Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne

· Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt· Referee Benjamin Brand

Full time1 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Eintracht Frankfurt to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Eintracht FrankfurtDrawFC Cologne

Why this pick: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Eintracht Frankfurt 10, FC Cologne 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Eintracht FrankfurtFC Cologne
1.80 xG per 90 1.93
1.65 npxG per 90 1.78
11.7 PPDA 17.7
8.5 Deep completions per 90 7.8
1.14 xPTS per 90 1.38

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceEintracht FrankfurtDrawFC Cologne
Model45%21%34%
Market52%22%26%
Published50%22%28%
Edge-2%0%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.72 vs 2.15.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Eintracht Frankfurt, 52 snapshots since 2026-09-21.

Opened 1.95Now 1.86 -0.09
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Eintracht Frankfurt1.951.86-0.09
Draw3.904.30+0.40
FC Cologne3.303.73+0.43

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Cologne expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.72Eintracht Frankfurt
2.15FC Cologne
Total expected goals
4.87
Attack rating (Eintracht Frankfurt / FC Cologne)
1.40 / 1.16
Defence rating (Eintracht Frankfurt / FC Cologne)
1.27 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.1% 1.1% 2.3% 1.7% 1.5% 1 1.4% 6.4% 5.7% 4.1% 3.6% 2 3.0% 6.5% 7.0% 5.0% 4.4% 3 2.5% 5.3% 5.7% 4.1% 3.6% 4+ 2.7% 5.8% 6.2% 4.5% 4.0%

Rows: Eintracht Frankfurt goals. Columns: FC Cologne goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 95%
Over 2.5 84%
Over 3.5 67%
Both teams to score
82%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Eintracht Frankfurt50%2.00
Draw22%4.53
FC Cologne28%3.58
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.584%1.19
Under 2.516%6.14
Both teams to scoreYes82%1.22
No18%5.49
Double chance1X (Eintracht Frankfurt or draw)72%1.39
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or FC Cologne)50%2.00
Handicap -1Eintracht Frankfurt win by 2+28%3.58
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Cologne recent form

Eintracht Frankfurt 2W 2D 2L
FC Cologne 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Eintracht Frankfurt at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Cologne away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Eintracht Frankfurt at home only, FC Cologne away only.

Injuries & availability

Eintracht Frankfurt absences

  • J. Maluze illness
  • J. Ngankam hamstring injury
  • M. Pimpong injury

FC Cologne absences

  • A. Castro-Montes muscle injury
  • E. Skhiri injury
  • R. Ache thigh injury
  • R. van den Berg muscle injury
  • T. Dallinga knee injury
  • T. Hubers knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Eintracht Frankfurt lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 N. Atubolu
  2. 26 K. Kosugi
  3. 3 L. Brassier
  4. 4 R. Koch
  5. 34 N. Collins
  6. 8 F. Chaïbi
  7. 27 M. Götze
  8. 25 R. Onyedika
  9. 20 R. Dōan
  10. 11 Y. Ebnoutalib
  11. 9 J. Burkardt

Bench: Elias Baum, A. Knauff, N. Aséko Nkili, T. Chandler, A. Amaimouni, L. Arrhov, J. Maluze, Kauã Santos, C. Uzun

FC Cologne lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 M. Schwäbe
  2. 24 L. Lochoshvili
  3. 22 Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
  4. 2 J. Schmied
  5. 3 B. Sosa
  6. 5 T. Krauß
  7. 8 Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson
  8. 28 S. Sebulonsen
  9. 10 S. El Mala
  10. 37 L. Maina
  11. 30 M. Bülter

Bench: L. Waldschmidt, Reigan Heskey, G. Mensah, A. Castro-Montes, R. Zieler, Paul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler, J. Thielmann, A. Kotya-Fofana, M. Moore

Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Eintracht Frankfurt 2 · draws 5 · FC Cologne 3.

Eintracht FrankfurtDrawsFC Cologne
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-05Eintracht Frankfurt2-2FC CologneBundesliga
2025-11-22FC Cologne3-4Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
2024-02-03FC Cologne2-0Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
2023-09-03Eintracht Frankfurt1-1FC CologneBundesliga
2023-02-12FC Cologne3-0Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
2022-08-21Eintracht Frankfurt1-1FC CologneBundesliga
2022-02-19FC Cologne1-0Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
2021-09-25Eintracht Frankfurt1-1FC CologneBundesliga
2021-02-14Eintracht Frankfurt2-0FC CologneBundesliga
2020-10-18FC Cologne1-1Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match