Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 5

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt

· Leipzig Red Bull Arena, Leipzig· Referee Daniel Siebert

Full time6 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was RasenBallsport Leipzig to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
RasenBallsport LeipzigDrawEintracht Frankfurt

Why this pick: RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (RasenBallsport Leipzig 10, Eintracht Frankfurt 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

RasenBallsport LeipzigEintracht Frankfurt
2.29 xG per 90 1.74
2.29 npxG per 90 1.59
11.5 PPDA 11.8
9.4 Deep completions per 90 8.4
1.75 xPTS per 90 1.19

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRasenBallsport LeipzigDrawEintracht Frankfurt
Model43%22%36%
Market60%20%20%
Published56%20%24%
Edge-4%0%+4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.61 vs 2.16.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt odds movement

Median bookmaker price on RasenBallsport Leipzig, 46 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 1.53Now 1.60 +0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
RasenBallsport Leipzig1.531.60+0.07
Draw4.724.85+0.12
Eintracht Frankfurt5.124.78-0.35

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

RasenBallsport Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.61RasenBallsport Leipzig
2.16Eintracht Frankfurt
Total expected goals
4.77
Attack rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / Eintracht Frankfurt)
1.30 / 1.42
Defence rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / Eintracht Frankfurt)
1.04 / 1.09

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.2% 1.3% 2.6% 1.8% 1.6% 1 1.5% 6.7% 6.0% 4.3% 3.9% 2 3.0% 6.6% 7.1% 5.1% 4.5% 3 2.4% 5.2% 5.6% 4.0% 3.6% 4+ 2.4% 5.3% 5.7% 4.1% 3.6%

Rows: RasenBallsport Leipzig goals. Columns: Eintracht Frankfurt goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 95%
Over 2.5 83%
Over 3.5 66%
Both teams to score
81%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2RasenBallsport Leipzig56%1.79
Draw20%4.94
Eintracht Frankfurt24%4.17
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.583%1.21
Under 2.517%5.79
Both teams to scoreYes81%1.23
No19%5.30
Double chance1X (RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw)76%1.32
12 (either side)80%1.25
X2 (draw or Eintracht Frankfurt)44%2.26
Handicap -1RasenBallsport Leipzig win by 2+26%3.83
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

RasenBallsport Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt recent form

RasenBallsport Leipzig 3W 0D 3L
Eintracht Frankfurt 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

RasenBallsport Leipzig at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
2 of 2

Eintracht Frankfurt away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: RasenBallsport Leipzig at home only, Eintracht Frankfurt away only.

Injuries & availability

RasenBallsport Leipzig absences

  • A. Ouedraogo shoulder injury
  • B. Gruda muscle injury
  • C. Baumgartner thigh injury
  • M. Guiu hamstring injury
  • R. Reitz muscle injury

Eintracht Frankfurt absences

  • F. Chaibi lacking match fitness
  • J. Maluze illness
  • J. Ngankam hamstring injury
  • M. Pimpong injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

RasenBallsport Leipzig lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 26 M. Vandevoordt
  2. 22 D. Raum
  3. 23 C. Lukeba
  4. 4 W. Orbán
  5. 17 R. Baku
  6. 21 N. El Aynaoui
  7. 6 E. Banzuzi
  8. 7 A. Nusa
  9. 28 C. Nkunku
  10. 30 A. Maksimović
  11. 40 Rômulo

Bench: Ø. Nyland, M. Estève, B. Gruda, N. Seiwald, L. Klostermann, R. Reitz, T. Gomis, Max Finkgräfe, B. Henrichs

Eintracht Frankfurt lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 N. Atubolu
  2. 26 K. Kosugi
  3. 3 L. Brassier
  4. 4 R. Koch
  5. 34 N. Collins
  6. 42 C. Uzun
  7. 25 R. Onyedika
  8. 15 N. Aséko Nkili
  9. 20 R. Dōan
  10. 9 J. Burkardt
  11. 7 A. Knauff

Bench: Elias Baum, Otávio, O. Højlund, F. Chaïbi, Y. Ebnoutalib, T. Chandler, M. Götze, L. Arrhov, Kauã Santos

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: RasenBallsport Leipzig 6 · draws 1 · Eintracht Frankfurt 3.

RasenBallsport LeipzigDrawsEintracht Frankfurt
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-18Eintracht Frankfurt1-3RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga
2025-12-06RasenBallsport Leipzig6-0Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
2025-04-26Eintracht Frankfurt4-0RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga
2024-12-15RasenBallsport Leipzig2-1Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
2024-12-04RasenBallsport Leipzig3-0Eintracht FrankfurtDFB Pokal
2024-05-18Eintracht Frankfurt2-2RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga
2024-01-13RasenBallsport Leipzig0-1Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
2023-06-03RasenBallsport Leipzig2-0Eintracht FrankfurtDFB Pokal
2023-02-25RasenBallsport Leipzig2-1Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
2023-01-07RasenBallsport Leipzig2-4Eintracht FrankfurtFriendlies Clubs

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match