Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 7

FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04

· RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne· Referee Harm Osmers

Full time0 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was FC Cologne to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC CologneDrawFC Schalke 04

Why this pick: FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (FC Cologne 10, FC Schalke 04 6). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

FC CologneFC Schalke 04
1.91 xG per 90 1.23
1.83 npxG per 90 1.23
16.7 PPDA 20.3
7.6 Deep completions per 90 5.7
1.44 xPTS per 90 0.85

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC CologneDrawFC Schalke 04
Model40%31%30%
Market45%26%29%
Published44%27%29%
Edge-1%+1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.23.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04 odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Cologne, 25 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 2.20Now 2.10 -0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Cologne2.202.10-0.10
Draw3.643.70+0.06
FC Schalke 043.083.30+0.21

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Cologne and FC Schalke 04 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.60FC Cologne
1.23FC Schalke 04
Total expected goals
2.83
Attack rating (FC Cologne / FC Schalke 04)
1.12 / 0.82
Defence rating (FC Cologne / FC Schalke 04)
1.03 / 0.77

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.4% 6.1% 5.2% 2.1% 0.9% 1 7.5% 14.7% 7.5% 3.1% 1.2% 2 7.2% 8.8% 5.4% 2.2% 0.9% 3 3.5% 4.2% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 1.7% 2.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: FC Cologne goals. Columns: FC Schalke 04 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Cologne44%2.28
Draw27%3.70
FC Schalke 0429%3.44
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550%2.00
Under 2.550%2.00
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.77
No44%2.30
Double chance1X (FC Cologne or draw)71%1.41
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or FC Schalke 04)56%1.78
Handicap -1FC Cologne win by 2+20%4.96
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC Cologne and FC Schalke 04 recent form

FC Cologne 2W 1D 3L
FC Schalke 04 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Cologne at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Schalke 04 away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Cologne at home only, FC Schalke 04 away only.

Injuries & availability

FC Cologne absences

  • E. Skhiri ankle injury
  • R. Ache thigh injury
  • R. van den Berg muscle injury
  • T. Dallinga knee injury
  • T. Hubers knee injury

FC Schalke 04 absences

  • D. Ljubicic knee injury
  • K. Karaman muscle injury
  • M. Sylla leg injury
  • M. Wober muscle injury
  • R. Schallenberg leg injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

FC Cologne lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 M. Schwäbe
  2. 3 B. Sosa
  3. 24 L. Lochoshvili
  4. 22 Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
  5. 28 S. Sebulonsen
  6. 5 T. Krauß
  7. 8 Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson
  8. 10 S. El Mala
  9. 47 M. Moore
  10. 37 L. Maina
  11. 30 M. Bülter

Bench: J. Schmied, L. Waldschmidt, Reigan Heskey, G. Mensah, A. Castro-Montes, M. El Mala, R. Zieler, Paul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler, J. Thielmann

FC Schalke 04 lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 L. Karius
  2. 4 H. Kuruçay
  3. 25 N. Katić
  4. 5 T. Becker
  5. 8 R. Gosens
  6. 13 S. Tanaka
  7. 23 S. El-Faouzi
  8. 29 J. Dina Ebimbe
  9. 24 A. Aouchiche
  10. 20 J. Adamu
  11. 7 Hwang Hee-Chan

Bench: E. Džeko, B. Lasme, J. Bachmann, K. Müller, F. Porath, Vitalie Becker, L. Vozar, M. Ayhan

FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04 head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: FC Cologne 6 · draws 4 · FC Schalke 04 0.

FC CologneDrawsFC Schalke 04
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-02-09FC Cologne1-0FC Schalke 042. Bundesliga
2024-09-01FC Schalke 041-3FC Cologne2. Bundesliga
2023-01-29FC Schalke 040-0FC CologneBundesliga
2022-08-07FC Cologne3-1FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
2022-01-27FC Cologne2-2FC Schalke 04Friendlies Clubs
2021-05-22FC Cologne1-0FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
2021-01-20FC Schalke 041-2FC CologneBundesliga
2020-02-29FC Cologne3-0FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
2019-10-05FC Schalke 041-1FC CologneBundesliga
2018-10-31FC Cologne2-2FC Schalke 04DFB Pokal

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match