Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 5

FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach

· RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne· Referee Florian Badstubner

Full time2 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was FC Cologne to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC CologneDrawBorussia M.Gladbach

Why this pick: FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (FC Cologne 10, Borussia M.Gladbach 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

FC CologneBorussia M.Gladbach
2.17 xG per 90 1.53
1.94 npxG per 90 1.38
17.2 PPDA 12.9
8.1 Deep completions per 90 6.7
1.50 xPTS per 90 0.83

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC CologneDrawBorussia M.Gladbach
Model52%22%26%
Market47%25%28%
Published49%24%28%
Edge+1%-1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.70 vs 1.73.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Cologne, 47 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 1.85Now 2.02 +0.18
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Cologne1.852.02+0.18
Draw3.963.90-0.06
Borussia M.Gladbach3.773.40-0.38

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Cologne and Borussia M.Gladbach expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.70FC Cologne
1.73Borussia M.Gladbach
Total expected goals
4.43
Attack rating (FC Cologne / Borussia M.Gladbach)
1.18 / 1.08
Defence rating (FC Cologne / Borussia M.Gladbach)
1.09 / 1.24

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.9% 1.4% 2.3% 1.3% 0.9% 1 2.5% 7.9% 5.7% 3.3% 2.1% 2 4.6% 8.0% 6.9% 4.0% 2.5% 3 3.7% 6.5% 5.6% 3.2% 2.1% 4+ 4.0% 7.0% 6.1% 3.5% 2.2%

Rows: FC Cologne goals. Columns: Borussia M.Gladbach goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 78%
Over 3.5 60%
Both teams to score
76%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Cologne49%2.06
Draw24%4.19
Borussia M.Gladbach28%3.62
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578%1.27
Under 2.522%4.65
Both teams to scoreYes76%1.31
No24%4.23
Double chance1X (FC Cologne or draw)72%1.38
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Borussia M.Gladbach)51%1.94
Handicap -1FC Cologne win by 2+34%2.97
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC Cologne and Borussia M.Gladbach recent form

FC Cologne 2W 1D 3L
Borussia M.Gladbach 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Cologne at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2

Borussia M.Gladbach away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
4.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Cologne at home only, Borussia M.Gladbach away only.

Injuries & availability

FC Cologne absences

  • A. Castro-Montes muscle injury
  • R. Ache thigh injury
  • T. Dallinga knee injury
  • T. Hubers knee injury

Borussia M.Gladbach absences

  • E. Leopold knee injury
  • F. Honorat muscle injury
  • J. Castrop shoulder injury
  • K. Itakura ankle injury
  • N. Kuhn muscle injury
  • T. Kleindienst injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

FC Cologne lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 M. Schwäbe
  2. 3 B. Sosa
  3. 24 L. Lochoshvili
  4. 22 Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
  5. 28 S. Sebulonsen
  6. 6 E. Skhiri
  7. 8 Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson
  8. 10 S. El Mala
  9. 47 M. Moore
  10. 37 L. Maina
  11. 30 M. Bülter

Bench: J. Schmied, T. Krauß, L. Waldschmidt, Reigan Heskey, G. Mensah, I. Rondić, R. Zieler, Paul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler, J. Thielmann

Borussia M.Gladbach lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 M. Nicolas
  2. 4 K. Diks
  3. 5 J. Leszczyński
  4. 14 D. Hashioka
  5. 26 L. Ullrich
  6. 16 P. Sander
  7. 38 H. Bolin
  8. 29 J. Scally
  9. 10 F. Neuhaus
  10. 25 R. Hack
  11. 3 I. Lidberg

Bench: F. Chiarodia, S. Machino, D. Herold, Y. Konoplya, F. Fleck, D. Batz, M. Nguefack, W. Mohya, Z. Uno

FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: FC Cologne 4 · draws 3 · Borussia M.Gladbach 3.

FC CologneDrawsBorussia M.Gladbach
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-21FC Cologne3-3Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga
2025-11-08Borussia M.Gladbach3-1FC CologneBundesliga
2024-03-09Borussia M.Gladbach3-3FC CologneBundesliga
2023-10-22FC Cologne3-1Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga
2023-04-02FC Cologne0-0Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga
2022-10-09Borussia M.Gladbach5-2FC CologneBundesliga
2022-04-16Borussia M.Gladbach1-3FC CologneBundesliga
2021-11-27FC Cologne4-1Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga
2021-02-06Borussia M.Gladbach1-2FC CologneBundesliga
2020-10-03FC Cologne1-3Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match