Updated

La Liga · Matchday 6

Levante vs Athletic Club

· Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia· Referee Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez

Full time3 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Athletic Club to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LevanteDrawAthletic Club

Why this pick: Levante vs Athletic Club

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Levante 10, Athletic Club 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

LevanteAthletic Club
1.67 xG per 90 1.70
1.59 npxG per 90 1.63
14.3 PPDA 13.3
5.2 Deep completions per 90 6.3
1.22 xPTS per 90 1.78

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Levante vs Athletic Club: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLevanteDrawAthletic Club
Model40%26%34%
Market26%29%45%
Published30%28%42%
Edge+3%-1%-3%
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Levante vs Athletic Club odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Athletic Club, 47 snapshots since 2026-09-06.

Opened 2.33Now 2.11 -0.22
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Levante3.273.65+0.38
Draw3.583.30-0.28
Athletic Club2.332.11-0.22

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Levante and Athletic Club expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.77Levante
1.72Athletic Club
Total expected goals
3.48
Attack rating (Levante / Athletic Club)
1.13 / 1.09
Defence rating (Levante / Athletic Club)
1.35 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Levante vs Athletic Club score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.6% 3.0% 4.1% 2.4% 1.5% 1 3.4% 10.8% 7.7% 4.4% 2.8% 2 4.8% 8.3% 7.1% 4.1% 2.6% 3 3.0% 5.1% 4.4% 2.5% 1.6% 4+ 2.1% 3.6% 3.1% 1.8% 1.1%

Rows: Levante goals. Columns: Athletic Club goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Levante vs Athletic Club goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 69%
Over 3.5 48%
Both teams to score
71%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Levante vs Athletic Club

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Levante30%3.38
Draw28%3.57
Athletic Club42%2.36
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569%1.45
Under 2.531%3.24
Both teams to scoreYes71%1.41
No29%3.44
Double chance1X (Levante or draw)58%1.74
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Athletic Club)70%1.42
Handicap -1Athletic Club win by 2+18%5.46
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Levante and Athletic Club recent form

Levante 1W 3D 2L
Athletic Club 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Levante at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
3.33
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Athletic Club away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Levante at home only, Athletic Club away only.

Injuries & availability

Levante absences

  • A. Primo shoulder injury
  • H. Sotelo knee injury
  • K. Etta Eyong muscle injury

Athletic Club absences

  • A. Djalo illness
  • G. Guruzeta knee injury
  • O. Sancet muscle injury
  • U. Egiluz knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Levante lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 13 M. Ryan
  2. 23 Manu Sánchez
  3. 3 Ifeanyi Ndukwe
  4. 2 A. Mandi
  5. 22 J. Toljan
  6. 24 T. Fernández
  7. 6 Reque
  8. 8 Jon Ander Olasagasti
  9. 7 Brugui
  10. 10 P. Ratkov
  11. 9 Iván Romero

Bench: Pablo Cuñat, Hugo Sotelo, Yanis Musuayi, Jorge Cabello, A. Tape, Víctor García, Oriol Rey, Etta Eyong, Paco Cortés, Nacho Pérez, Primo, M. Santos

Athletic Club lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Unai Simón
  2. 17 Yuri
  3. 14 Aymeric Laporte
  4. 5 Yeray
  5. 15 Hugo Rincón
  6. 18 Mikel Jauregizar
  7. 16 Ruíz de Galarreta
  8. 31 J. Louis-Jean
  9. 23 Robert Navarro
  10. 7 Álex Berenguer
  11. 21 Maroan Sannadi

Bench: Dani Vivian, Aitor Paredes, Beñat Prados, I. Williams, Nico Williams, Jesús Areso, Álex Padilla, Alejandro Rego, Nico Serrano, Beñat Gerenabarrena, Peio Canales, Christian Imga

Levante vs Athletic Club head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Levante 0 · draws 3 · Athletic Club 7.

LevanteDrawsAthletic Club
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-08Athletic Club4-2LevanteLa Liga
2025-11-29Levante0-2Athletic ClubLa Liga
2022-03-07Athletic Club3-1LevanteLa Liga
2021-11-19Levante0-0Athletic ClubLa Liga
2021-03-04Levante1-2Athletic ClubCopa del Rey
2021-02-26Levante1-1Athletic ClubLa Liga
2021-02-11Athletic Club1-1LevanteCopa del Rey
2020-10-18Athletic Club2-0LevanteLa Liga
2020-07-12Levante1-2Athletic ClubLa Liga
2019-11-10Athletic Club2-1LevanteLa Liga

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match