Updated

La Liga · Matchday 10

Real Sociedad vs Levante

· Anoeta Stadium, San Sebastian· Referee Javier Alberola Rojas

Full time2 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Real Sociedad to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 3 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Real SociedadDrawLevante

Why this pick: Real Sociedad vs Levante

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Real Sociedad 10, Levante 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Real SociedadLevante
1.67 xG per 90 1.61
1.56 npxG per 90 1.61
10.5 PPDA 14.6
7.7 Deep completions per 90 5.5
1.35 xPTS per 90 1.10

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Real Sociedad vs Levante: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceReal SociedadDrawLevante
Model67%17%15%
Market60%21%19%
Published62%20%18%
Edge+2%-1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.89 vs 1.51.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Real Sociedad vs Levante odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Real Sociedad, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.71Now 1.58 -0.13
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Real Sociedad1.711.58-0.13
Draw4.004.62+0.62
Levante4.535.00+0.47

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Real Sociedad and Levante expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.89Real Sociedad
1.51Levante
Total expected goals
4.40
Attack rating (Real Sociedad / Levante)
1.33 / 1.15
Defence rating (Real Sociedad / Levante)
1.13 / 1.35

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Real Sociedad vs Levante score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.0% 0.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 1 2.3% 5.8% 3.7% 1.9% 1.0% 2 4.9% 7.4% 5.6% 2.8% 1.5% 3 5.0% 7.5% 5.6% 2.8% 1.5% 4+ 8.0% 12.0% 9.1% 4.6% 2.4%

Rows: Real Sociedad goals. Columns: Levante goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Real Sociedad vs Levante goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 95%
Over 2.5 83%
Over 3.5 66%
Both teams to score
75%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Real Sociedad vs Levante

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Real Sociedad62%1.61
Draw20%5.05
Levante18%5.51
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.583%1.20
Under 2.517%5.90
Both teams to scoreYes75%1.33
No25%4.01
Double chance1X (Real Sociedad or draw)82%1.22
12 (either side)80%1.25
X2 (draw or Levante)38%2.63
Handicap -1Real Sociedad win by 2+49%2.03
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Real Sociedad and Levante recent form

Real Sociedad 4W 1D 1L
Levante 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Real Sociedad at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Levante away

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.40
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Real Sociedad at home only, Levante away only.

Injuries & availability

Real Sociedad absences

  • A. Odriozola knee injury
  • L. Beitia ankle injury

Levante absences

  • Dela overload
  • E. Bardeli muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Real Sociedad lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 Álex Remiro
  2. 17 Sergio Gómez
  3. 19 M. Sarr
  4. 6 Jon Martín
  5. 22 Héctor Fort
  6. 11 Gonçalo Guedes
  7. 8 Beñat Turrientes
  8. 4 Jon Gorrotxategi
  9. 24 L. Sučić
  10. 9 O. Óskarsson
  11. 10 Mikel Oyarzabal

Bench: J. Aramburu, Aihen Muñoz, Zubeldia, Barrenetxea, J. Ochieng, Unai Marrero, T. Kubo, Pablo Marín, Jon Pacheco, Carlos Soler, Y. Herrera, A. Zakharyan

Levante lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 13 M. Ryan
  2. 23 Manu Sánchez
  3. 3 Ifeanyi Ndukwe
  4. 2 A. Mandi
  5. 29 Nacho Pérez
  6. 24 T. Fernández
  7. 6 Reque
  8. 8 Jon Ander Olasagasti
  9. 7 Brugui
  10. 10 P. Ratkov
  11. 9 Iván Romero

Bench: Pablo Cuñat, Hugo Sotelo, Yanis Musuayi, Jorge Cabello, A. Tape, Víctor García, Oriol Rey, Etta Eyong, J. Toljan, Paco Cortés, Primo, M. Santos

Real Sociedad vs Levante head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Real Sociedad 4 · draws 3 · Levante 3.

Real SociedadDrawsLevante
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-04Real Sociedad2-0LevanteLa Liga
2025-12-20Levante1-1Real SociedadLa Liga
2022-05-06Levante2-1Real SociedadLa Liga
2021-08-28Real Sociedad1-0LevanteLa Liga
2021-03-07Real Sociedad1-0LevanteLa Liga
2020-12-19Levante2-1Real SociedadLa Liga
2020-07-06Levante1-1Real SociedadLa Liga
2019-10-30Real Sociedad1-2LevanteLa Liga
2019-03-15Real Sociedad1-1LevanteLa Liga
2018-11-09Levante1-3Real SociedadLa Liga

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match