Updated

La Liga · Matchday 9

Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante

· Estadio de Riazor, La Coruna· Referee Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Deportivo La Coruna to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Deportivo La CorunaDrawLevante

Why this pick: Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Deportivo La Coruna 8, Levante 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Deportivo La CorunaLevante
1.34 xG per 90 1.77
1.25 npxG per 90 1.69
13.2 PPDA 15.6
5.0 Deep completions per 90 5.2
1.24 xPTS per 90 1.27

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDeportivo La CorunaDrawLevante
Model60%22%18%
Market46%27%27%
Published49%26%25%
Edge+4%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.33 vs 1.35.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Deportivo La Coruna below our published probability: +3.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Deportivo La Coruna, 29 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.08Now 2.11 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Deportivo La Coruna2.082.11+0.03
Draw3.483.54+0.06
Levante3.543.53-0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Deportivo La Coruna and Levante expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.33Deportivo La Coruna
1.35Levante
Total expected goals
3.68
Attack rating (Deportivo La Coruna / Levante)
1.06 / 1.24
Defence rating (Deportivo La Coruna / Levante)
0.94 / 1.37

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.7% 1.6% 2.0% 0.9% 0.4% 1 4.0% 8.9% 5.0% 2.2% 1.0% 2 6.7% 9.1% 6.1% 2.7% 1.2% 3 5.5% 7.4% 5.0% 2.2% 1.0% 4+ 6.0% 8.1% 5.4% 2.4% 1.1%

Rows: Deportivo La Coruna goals. Columns: Levante goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 73%
Over 3.5 53%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Deportivo La Coruna49%2.03
Draw26%3.88
Levante25%4.00
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573%1.37
Under 2.527%3.70
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.45
No31%3.23
Double chance1X (Deportivo La Coruna or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Levante)51%1.97
Handicap -1Deportivo La Coruna win by 2+40%2.48
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Deportivo La Coruna and Levante recent form

Deportivo La Coruna 2W 2D 2L
Levante 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Deportivo La Coruna at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Levante away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.25
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo La Coruna at home only, Levante away only.

Injuries & availability

Deportivo La Coruna absences

  • L. Amatucci suspended
  • M. Casado collarbone injury
  • P. Aubameyang knee injury
  • Z. Eddahchouri wrist injury

Levante absences

  • A. Primo shoulder injury
  • H. Sotelo knee injury
  • K. Etta Eyong muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Deportivo La Coruna lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 13 Leo Román
  2. 12 G. Quagliata
  3. 22 B. Ede
  4. 20 J. Giménez
  5. 23 Ximo Navarro
  6. 21 Mario Soriano
  7. 8 Diego Villares
  8. 14 Riki Rodríguez
  9. 19 Luismi Cruz
  10. 32 B. Nsongo
  11. 10 Peke

Bench: Adrià Alti, L. Noubi, David Mella, Miguel Loureiro, Angeliño, Jonathan Asp Jensen, Adama Traoré, Álvaro Fernández, Martín Ochoa, Kevin Sánchez, Yayo, Noé

Levante lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 13 M. Ryan
  2. 23 Manu Sánchez
  3. 3 Ifeanyi Ndukwe
  4. 4 Dela
  5. 29 Nacho Pérez
  6. 18 E. Bardeli
  7. 6 Reque
  8. 20 Oriol Rey
  9. 24 T. Fernández
  10. 9 Iván Romero
  11. 7 Brugui

Bench: Pablo Cuñat, A. Mandi, Jon Ander Olasagasti, P. Ratkov, Yanis Musuayi, Jorge Cabello, A. Tape, Víctor García, J. Toljan, Paco Cortés, I. Galdin

Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Deportivo La Coruna 3 · draws 4 · Levante 3.

Deportivo La CorunaDrawsLevante
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-01-25Deportivo La Coruna1-2LevanteSegunda División
2024-10-24Levante2-1Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
2018-01-27Deportivo La Coruna2-2LevanteLa Liga
2017-08-26Levante2-2Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
2016-03-19Deportivo La Coruna2-1LevanteLa Liga
2015-11-07Levante1-1Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
2015-05-17Deportivo La Coruna2-0LevanteLa Liga
2015-01-09Levante0-0Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
2013-04-13Levante0-4Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
2012-11-18Deportivo La Coruna0-2LevanteLa Liga

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match