Updated

La Liga · Matchday 10

Athletic Club vs Getafe

· San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao· Referee Francisco Jose Hernandez Maeso

Full time4 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Athletic Club to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Athletic ClubDrawGetafe

Why this pick: Athletic Club vs Getafe

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Athletic Club 10, Getafe 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Athletic ClubGetafe
1.79 xG per 90 0.88
1.64 npxG per 90 0.88
12.9 PPDA 14.5
6.4 Deep completions per 90 3.2
1.76 xPTS per 90 0.88

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Athletic Club vs Getafe: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAthletic ClubDrawGetafe
Model70%19%11%
Market61%24%15%
Published63%23%14%
Edge+2%-1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 0.95.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Athletic Club below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Athletic Club vs Getafe odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Athletic Club, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 1.66Now 1.58 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Athletic Club1.661.58-0.08
Draw3.554.00+0.45
Getafe4.906.40+1.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Athletic Club and Getafe expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.42Athletic Club
0.95Getafe
Total expected goals
3.37
Attack rating (Athletic Club / Getafe)
1.10 / 0.81
Defence rating (Athletic Club / Getafe)
1.01 / 1.37

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Athletic Club vs Getafe score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.5% 1.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 1 6.2% 8.8% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 2 9.8% 9.4% 4.5% 1.4% 0.4% 3 8.3% 7.9% 3.8% 1.2% 0.4% 4+ 9.6% 9.2% 4.4% 1.4% 0.4%

Rows: Athletic Club goals. Columns: Getafe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Athletic Club vs Getafe goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 68%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Athletic Club vs Getafe

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Athletic Club63%1.58
Draw23%4.38
Getafe14%7.18
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568%1.48
Under 2.532%3.10
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.72
No42%2.39
Double chance1X (Athletic Club or draw)86%1.16
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Getafe)37%2.72
Handicap -1Athletic Club win by 2+50%2.00
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Athletic Club and Getafe recent form

Athletic Club 2W 3D 1L
Getafe 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Athletic Club at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Getafe away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Athletic Club at home only, Getafe away only.

Injuries & availability

Athletic Club absences

  • A. Laporte suspended
  • G. Guruzeta knee injury
  • O. Sancet muscle injury
  • U. Egiluz knee injury

Getafe absences

  • C. Uche knee injury
  • Djene suspended
  • Juanmi knee injury
  • O. Mangala muscle injury
  • Z. Romero muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Athletic Club lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Unai Simón
  2. 17 Yuri
  3. 4 Aitor Paredes
  4. 3 Dani Vivian
  5. 15 Hugo Rincón
  6. 28 Peio Canales
  7. 16 Ruíz de Galarreta
  8. 10 Nico Williams
  9. 7 Álex Berenguer
  10. 9 I. Williams
  11. 21 Maroan Sannadi

Bench: Yeray, Beñat Prados, Jesús Areso, Álex Padilla, Mikel Jauregizar, Alejandro Rego, Nico Serrano, Robert Navarro, Beñat Gerenabarrena, J. Louis-Jean, Christian Imga

Getafe lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 13 David Soria
  2. 22 J. Mojica
  3. 26 J. Valou
  4. 8 N. Gudelj
  5. 11 Ramón Terrats
  6. 16 Francho Serrano
  7. 6 Mario Martín
  8. 17 Kiko Femenía
  9. 10 M. Satriano
  10. 20 Iván Azón

Bench: J. Letáček, Davinchi, S. Sazonov, A. Abqar, Borja Mayoral, S. Boselli, E. Ünal, Andrés García, Alberto Risco, Diego Ferrer

Athletic Club vs Getafe head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Athletic Club 2 · draws 6 · Getafe 2.

Athletic ClubDrawsGetafe
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-05Getafe2-0Athletic ClubLa Liga
2025-10-25Athletic Club0-1GetafeLa Liga
2025-05-15Getafe0-2Athletic ClubLa Liga
2024-08-15Athletic Club1-1GetafeLa Liga
2024-05-03Getafe0-2Athletic ClubLa Liga
2023-09-27Athletic Club2-2GetafeLa Liga
2023-04-01Athletic Club0-0GetafeLa Liga
2022-10-18Getafe2-2Athletic ClubLa Liga
2022-03-18Athletic Club1-1GetafeLa Liga
2021-12-06Getafe0-0Athletic ClubLa Liga

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match