Why this pick: Marseille vs Toulouse
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Marseille 10, Toulouse 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Marseille vs Toulouse: model vs market
| Source | Marseille | Draw | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 23% | 47% |
| Market | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| Published | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| Edge | -5% | 0% | +5% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Marseille vs Toulouse odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Marseille, 19 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 1.84 | 1.90 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 3.99 | 3.90 | -0.09 |
| Toulouse | 3.98 | 3.69 | -0.28 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Marseille and Toulouse expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.49
- Attack rating (Marseille / Toulouse)
- 1.05 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Marseille / Toulouse)
- 1.37 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Marseille vs Toulouse score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Marseille goals. Columns: Toulouse goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Marseille vs Toulouse goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Marseille vs Toulouse
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marseille | 45% | 2.22 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.18 | |
| Toulouse | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Marseille or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Toulouse) | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Handicap -1 | Marseille win by 2+ | 14% | 6.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Marseille and Toulouse recent form
Marseille
3W 0D 3L
Toulouse
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Marseille at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toulouse away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Marseille at home only, Toulouse away only.
Marseille vs Toulouse head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Marseille 3 · draws 4 · Toulouse 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Toulouse | 0-1 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Marseille | 2-2 | Toulouse | Coupe de France |
| 2025-11-29 | Marseille | 2-2 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-04-06 | Marseille | 3-2 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-08-31 | Toulouse | 1-3 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-04-21 | Toulouse | 2-2 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-09-17 | Marseille | 0-0 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Lille v Lens — match page 2026-10-30
- Strasbourg vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Paris FC vs Monaco 2026-10-31
- Nice v Rennes — match page 2026-10-31
- Lyon vs Angers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Lorient vs Brest 2026-10-31
- Estac Troyes v Le Mans — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Marseille, previous: Marseille vs Le Havre: odds and pick
- Toulouse, previous: Toulouse v Estac Troyes analysis