Why this pick: Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Le Havre 10, Paris Saint Germain 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain: model vs market
| Source | Le Havre | Draw | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23% | 19% | 58% |
| Market | 9% | 14% | 77% |
| Published | 12% | 15% | 72% |
| Edge | +4% | +1% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.58 vs 1.71.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.26, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Paris Saint Germain, 19 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 9.86 | 10.62 | +0.77 |
| Draw | 6.71 | 6.70 | -0.01 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.25 | 1.23 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.29
- Attack rating (Le Havre / Paris Saint Germain)
- 1.05 / 1.70
- Defence rating (Le Havre / Paris Saint Germain)
- 1.20 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Le Havre goals. Columns: Paris Saint Germain goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Le Havre | 12% | 8.03 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.56 | |
| Paris Saint Germain | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 4.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Le Havre or draw) | 28% | 3.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| X2 (draw or Paris Saint Germain) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Paris Saint Germain win by 2+ | 38% | 2.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain recent form
Le Havre
0W 1D 5L
Paris Saint Germain
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Le Havre at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Paris Saint Germain away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Le Havre at home only, Paris Saint Germain away only.
Injuries & availability
Le Havre absences
-
A. Toure
knee injury
- E. Jelert thigh injury
-
F. Mambimbi
achilles tendon injury
-
L. Mpasi-Nzau
achilles tendon injury
-
S. Zagadou
knee injury
-
T. Pembele
muscle injury
Paris Saint Germain absences
-
A. Longoni
injury
-
K. Kvaratskhelia
knee injury
-
Marquinhos
thigh injury
-
N. Mendes
muscle injury
-
O. Dembele
thigh injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Le Havre 0 · draws 1 · Paris Saint Germain 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Le Havre | 0-1 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Paris Saint Germain | 3-0 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-04-19 | Paris Saint Germain | 2-1 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-08-16 | Le Havre | 1-4 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-04-27 | Paris Saint Germain | 3-3 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-12-03 | Le Havre | 0-2 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-07-21 | Paris Saint Germain | 2-0 | Le Havre | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2020-07-12 | Le Havre | 0-9 | Paris Saint Germain | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Lille v Lens — match page 2026-10-30
- Marseille vs Toulouse 2026-10-31
- Strasbourg vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Paris FC vs Monaco 2026-10-31
- Nice v Rennes — match page 2026-10-31
- Lyon vs Angers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Lorient vs Brest 2026-10-31
- Estac Troyes v Le Mans — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Le Havre, previous: Marseille vs Le Havre: odds and pick
- Paris Saint Germain, previous: Paris Saint Germain v Lyon analysis