Why this pick: Lille vs Lens
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lille 10, Lens 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lille vs Lens: model vs market
| Source | Lille | Draw | Lens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 24% | 39% |
| Market | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Published | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Lille vs Lens odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lille, 19 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 2.34 | 2.46 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.54 | +0.00 |
| Lens | 2.96 | 2.77 | -0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lille and Lens expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.33
- Attack rating (Lille / Lens)
- 0.97 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Lille / Lens)
- 1.24 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lille vs Lens score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lille goals. Columns: Lens goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lille vs Lens goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lille vs Lens
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lille | 38% | 2.61 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Lens | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.55 |
| No | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lille or draw) | 64% | 1.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Lens) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lille win by 2+ | 18% | 5.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lille and Lens recent form
Lille
1W 2D 3L
Lens
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lille at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lens away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lille at home only, Lens away only.
Injuries & availability
Lille absences
- A. Ueda foot injury
-
H. Igamane
knee injury
-
T. Nianzou
suspended
-
T. Santos
knee injury
Lens absences
-
A. Sima
muscle injury
-
I. Ganiou
knee injury
-
J. Gradit
muscle injury
-
M. Nawrocki
knee injury
-
O. Edouard
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Lille vs Lens head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Lille 5 · draws 3 · Lens 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Lille | 3-0 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Lens | 3-0 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-03-30 | Lille | 1-0 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-10-26 | Lens | 0-2 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-03-29 | Lille | 2-1 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-10-08 | Lens | 1-1 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-03-04 | Lens | 1-1 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-10-09 | Lille | 1-0 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-04-16 | Lille | 1-2 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-01-04 | Lens | 2-2 | Lille | Coupe de France |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Marseille vs Toulouse 2026-10-31
- Strasbourg vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Paris FC vs Monaco 2026-10-31
- Nice v Rennes — match page 2026-10-31
- Lyon vs Angers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Lorient vs Brest 2026-10-31
- Estac Troyes v Le Mans — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Lille, previous: Monaco vs Lille prediction
- Lens, previous: Lens – Paris FC, 2026-10-24