Updated

Ligue 1 · Matchday 8

Marseille vs Le Havre

· Orange Vélodrome, Marseille· Referee Clement Turpin

Full time4 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Marseille to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MarseilleDrawLe Havre

Why this pick: Marseille vs Le Havre

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Marseille 10, Le Havre 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

MarseilleLe Havre
1.84 xG per 90 1.18
1.49 npxG per 90 1.03
11.9 PPDA 11.2
8.1 Deep completions per 90 4.7
1.28 xPTS per 90 0.96

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Marseille vs Le Havre: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMarseilleDrawLe Havre
Model45%23%33%
Market65%19%16%
Published60%20%20%
Edge-5%+1%+4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.60.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Marseille vs Le Havre odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Marseille, 29 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 1.55Now 1.49 -0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Marseille1.551.49-0.06
Draw4.204.95+0.75
Le Havre5.786.00+0.22

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Marseille and Le Havre expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.99Marseille
1.60Le Havre
Total expected goals
3.59
Attack rating (Marseille / Le Havre)
1.03 / 0.96
Defence rating (Marseille / Le Havre)
1.31 / 1.21

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Marseille vs Le Havre score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 4.6% 3.9% 2.1% 1.2% 1 5.5% 9.4% 7.4% 3.9% 2.3% 2 5.4% 8.7% 7.0% 3.7% 2.1% 3 3.4% 5.5% 4.4% 2.4% 1.3% 4+ 2.5% 4.0% 3.2% 1.7% 1.0%

Rows: Marseille goals. Columns: Le Havre goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Marseille vs Le Havre goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 68%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
68%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Marseille vs Le Havre

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Marseille60%1.68
Draw20%4.95
Le Havre20%4.94
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568%1.48
Under 2.532%3.10
Both teams to scoreYes68%1.47
No32%3.12
Double chance1X (Marseille or draw)80%1.25
12 (either side)80%1.25
X2 (draw or Le Havre)40%2.47
Handicap -1Marseille win by 2+25%4.05
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Marseille and Le Havre recent form

Marseille 2W 0D 4L
Le Havre 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Marseille at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Le Havre away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Marseille at home only, Le Havre away only.

Injuries & availability

Marseille absences

  • D. Cornelius hip injury

Le Havre absences

  • A. Toure knee injury
  • E. Jelert thigh injury
  • F. Mambimbi achilles tendon injury
  • L. Mpasi-Nzau achilles tendon injury
  • S. Zagadou knee injury
  • T. Pembele muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Marseille lineup

  1. 9 A. Gouiri
  2. 77 A. Harit
  3. 4 C. Egan-Riley
  4. 33 Emerson
  5. 8 H. Abdelli
  6. 14 Igor Paixão
  7. 1 J. de Lange
  8. 21 N. Aguerd
  9. 23 P. Højbjerg
  10. 6 T. Nnadi
  11. 22 T. Weah

Bench: A. Gomes, N. Maupay, B. Meité, G. Kondogbia, U. Garcia, K. Abdallah, K. Bezahaf, T. Vermot

Le Havre lineup

  1. 7 A. Richardson
  2. 15 A. Seko
  3. 5 A. Touba
  4. 20 D. Ouziad
  5. 27 E. Koffi Vinette
  6. 93 G. Gallon
  7. 6 J. Mwanga
  8. 25 M. Samatta
  9. 38 R. Fofana
  10. 14 R. Ndiaye
  11. 26 S. Ebonog

Bench: J. Maja, A. Bodart, K. Mizuta, V. Sasso, G. Zohouri, S. Nakamura, D. Mosengo

Marseille vs Le Havre head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Marseille 7 · draws 0 · Le Havre 0.

MarseilleDrawsLe Havre
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Le Havre0-1MarseilleLigue 1
2025-10-18Marseille6-2Le HavreLigue 1
2025-05-10Le Havre1-3MarseilleLigue 1
2025-01-05Marseille5-1Le HavreLigue 1
2024-05-19Le Havre1-2MarseilleLigue 1
2023-10-08Marseille3-0Le HavreLigue 1
2012-01-22Marseille3-1Le HavreCoupe de France

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match