Why this pick: Torino vs Como
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Torino 10, Como 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Torino vs Como: model vs market
| Source | Torino | Draw | Como |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| Market | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| Published | 22% | 25% | 53% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.48.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Torino vs Como odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Como, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torino | 4.67 | 4.65 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.81 | +0.17 |
| Como | 1.77 | 1.76 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Torino and Como expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.55
- Attack rating (Torino / Como)
- 1.01 / 1.74
- Defence rating (Torino / Como)
- 0.99 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Torino vs Como score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Torino goals. Columns: Como goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Torino vs Como goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Torino vs Como
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Torino | 22% | 4.57 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Como | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.44 |
| No | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Torino or draw) | 47% | 2.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Como) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Como win by 2+ | 30% | 3.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Torino and Como recent form
Torino
4W 1D 1L
Como
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Torino at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Como away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Torino at home only, Como away only.
Injuries & availability
Torino absences
- E. Ilkhan muscle injury
-
F. Israel
shoulder injury
- N. Fortini thigh injury
- R. Mandragora muscle injury
- R. Rodriguez thigh injury
Como absences
-
A. Diao
thigh injury
- J. Rodriguez injury
-
M. Kean
leg injury
- M. Liberali leg injury
- T. Chalobah injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Torino lineup · 3-5-2
- 20 Lucas Perri
- 15 P. Comuzzo
- 44 A. Ismajli
- 23 Saúl Coco
- 77 A. Cacciamani
- 10 N. Vlašić
- 21 Daniel Bragança
- 28 K. Fitz-Jim
- 45 R. Belghali
- 19 C. Adams
- 18 G. Simeone
Bench: N. Patterson, C. Biraghi, E. Cömert, E. İlkhan, Z. Aboukhlal, P. Pellegri, G. Oristanio, S. Kulenović, C. Casadei, D. Mascardi, G. Gineitis, L. Siviero, D. Zapata
Como lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 97 Robert Sánchez
- 3 Álex Valle
- 2 M. Kempf
- 4 Jacobo Ramón Naveros
- 27 Yan Couto
- 6 Luis Milla
- 5 M. Perrone
- 8 M. Caqueret
- 10 N. Paz
- 7 L. da Cunha
- 9 T. Douvikas
Bench: J. Butez, A. Dossena, A. Lahdo, Kaiki, E. Goldaniga, M. Baturina, S. Ricci, M. Vigorito, J. Addai, Willy Kambwala Ndengushi
Torino vs Como head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Torino 1 · draws 0 · Como 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Como | 6-0 | Torino | Serie A |
| 2025-11-24 | Torino | 1-5 | Como | Serie A |
| 2025-04-13 | Como | 1-0 | Torino | Serie A |
| 2024-10-25 | Torino | 1-0 | Como | Serie A |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Sassuolo v Lazio — match page 2026-10-27
- Roma v Cagliari — match page 2026-10-27
- AC Milan vs Bologna — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Venezia vs Inter — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese 2026-10-28
- Genoa vs Juventus 2026-10-28
- Monza v Napoli — match page 2026-10-28
- Frosinone v Lecce — match page 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- Torino, previous: Torino vs Monza: odds and pick
- Torino, next: Frosinone vs Torino prediction
- Como, previous: Como v Sassuolo analysis
- Como, next: Como v Venezia analysis