Updated

Serie A · Matchday 9

Roma vs Cagliari

· Stadio Olimpico, Rome· Referee Ermanno Feliciani

Full time4 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Roma to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
RomaDrawCagliari

Why this pick: Roma vs Cagliari

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Roma 10, Cagliari 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

RomaCagliari
2.41 xG per 90 1.41
2.41 npxG per 90 1.32
9.2 PPDA 19.9
12.7 Deep completions per 90 3.1
1.88 xPTS per 90 1.18

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Roma vs Cagliari: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRomaDrawCagliari
Model69%17%14%
Market73%18%10%
Published72%18%11%
Edge-1%0%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.92 vs 1.35.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Roma vs Cagliari odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Roma, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-19.

Opened 1.35Now 1.32 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Roma1.351.32-0.03
Draw4.885.48+0.61
Cagliari9.1810.00+0.82

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Roma and Cagliari expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.92Roma
1.35Cagliari
Total expected goals
4.27
Attack rating (Roma / Cagliari)
1.74 / 1.02
Defence rating (Roma / Cagliari)
1.10 / 1.26

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Roma vs Cagliari score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.5% 0.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 1 3.0% 6.6% 3.7% 1.7% 0.8% 2 6.0% 8.0% 5.4% 2.4% 1.1% 3 5.8% 7.8% 5.3% 2.4% 1.1% 4+ 8.7% 11.7% 7.9% 3.6% 1.6%

Rows: Roma goals. Columns: Cagliari goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Roma vs Cagliari goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 80%
Over 3.5 62%
Both teams to score
71%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Roma vs Cagliari

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Roma72%1.39
Draw18%5.71
Cagliari11%9.40
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.580%1.25
Under 2.520%5.04
Both teams to scoreYes71%1.40
No29%3.47
Double chance1X (Roma or draw)89%1.12
12 (either side)82%1.21
X2 (draw or Cagliari)28%3.55
Handicap -1Roma win by 2+50%2.00
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Roma and Cagliari recent form

Roma 2W 3D 1L
Cagliari 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Roma at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Cagliari away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Roma at home only, Cagliari away only.

Injuries & availability

Roma absences

  • L. Pellegrini thigh injury
  • M. Bah knee injury
  • M. Kone muscle injury
  • M. Svilar toe injury
  • P. Dybala calf injury

Cagliari absences

  • H. Winks back injury
  • M. Felici knee injury
  • R. Idrissi knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Roma lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 95 P. Gollini
  2. 3 K. Koulierakis
  3. 5 E. Ndicka
  4. 23 G. Mancini
  5. 20 N. Molina
  6. 61 N. Pisilli
  7. 15 M. de Roon
  8. 4 B. Cristante
  9. 77 E. Lulli
  10. 9 S. Castro
  11. 18 M. Soulé

Bench: D. Rensch, D. Malen, Hermoso, L. Balerdi, D. Vásquez, Wesley, G. De Marzi, Rodrigo Mora, D. Ghilardi

Cagliari lineup · 3-5-1-1

  1. 1 E. Caprile
  2. 15 J. Rodríguez
  3. 26 Y. Mina
  4. 2 Zé Pedro
  5. 33 A. Obert
  6. 8 M. Adopo
  7. 14 A. Deiola
  8. 4 A. Romano
  9. 28 Y. Sugawara
  10. 39 A. Fadera
  11. 18 M'Bala Nzola

Bench: Kevin Carlos, J. Fazzini, A. Sherri, Y. Trepy, R. Ciervo, R. Gagliardini, R. Kofler, B. Radunović, G. Aurelio, J. Liteta, P. Mendy, Ivan Stoyanov Sulev, D. Maldini, Y. Massolin

Roma vs Cagliari head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Roma 7 · draws 1 · Cagliari 2.

RomaDrawsCagliari
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-09Roma2-0CagliariSerie A
2025-12-07Cagliari1-0RomaSerie A
2025-03-16Roma1-0CagliariSerie A
2024-08-18Cagliari0-0RomaSerie A
2024-02-05Roma4-0CagliariSerie A
2023-10-08Cagliari1-4RomaSerie A
2022-01-16Roma1-0CagliariSerie A
2021-10-27Cagliari1-2RomaSerie A
2021-04-25Cagliari3-2RomaSerie A
2020-12-23Roma3-2CagliariSerie A

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match