Why this pick: Frosinone vs Lecce
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Frosinone 10, Lecce 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Frosinone vs Lecce: model vs market
| Source | Frosinone | Draw | Lecce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 21% | 29% |
| Market | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Published | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 2.01.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.92, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +5.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Frosinone vs Lecce odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Frosinone, 19 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone | 1.92 | 1.69 | -0.23 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 4.13 | +0.51 |
| Lecce | 3.93 | 4.62 | +0.69 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Frosinone and Lecce expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.60
- Attack rating (Frosinone / Lecce)
- 1.40 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Frosinone / Lecce)
- 1.47 / 1.39
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Frosinone vs Lecce score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Frosinone goals. Columns: Lecce goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Frosinone vs Lecce goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 81%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Frosinone vs Lecce
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Frosinone | 55% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.45 | |
| Lecce | 23% | 4.38 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84% | 1.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 16% | 6.16 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 81% | 1.23 |
| No | 19% | 5.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Frosinone or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Lecce) | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | Frosinone win by 2+ | 32% | 3.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Frosinone and Lecce recent form
Frosinone
3W 2D 1L
Lecce
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Frosinone at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
Lecce away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Frosinone at home only, Lecce away only.
Injuries & availability
Frosinone absences
-
F. Grillitsch
thigh injury
Lecce absences
-
I. Ilic
thigh injury
- K. Gaspar suspended
-
L. Coulibaly
thigh injury
-
M. Berisha
thigh injury
- S. Pierotti ankle injury
-
Tiago Gabriel
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Frosinone vs Lecce head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Frosinone 0 · draws 3 · Lecce 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-03 | Frosinone | 1-1 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2023-12-16 | Lecce | 2-1 | Frosinone | Serie A |
| 2022-04-02 | Lecce | 1-0 | Frosinone | Serie B |
| 2021-11-20 | Frosinone | 0-0 | Lecce | Serie B |
| 2021-03-20 | Frosinone | 0-3 | Lecce | Serie B |
| 2020-12-12 | Lecce | 2-2 | Frosinone | Serie B |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Roma v Cagliari — match page 2026-10-27
- Torino vs Como 2026-10-27
- AC Milan vs Bologna — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Venezia vs Inter — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese 2026-10-28
- Genoa vs Juventus 2026-10-28
- Monza v Napoli — match page 2026-10-28
- Fiorentina vs Atalanta — team news & stats 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- Frosinone, previous: Atalanta v Frosinone analysis
- Frosinone, next: Frosinone vs Torino prediction
- Lecce, previous: Lecce – Juventus, 2026-10-25
- Lecce, next: Lecce – Genoa, 2026-11-01