Updated

Serie A · Matchday 9

AC Milan vs Bologna

· San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan· Referee Juan Luca Sacchi

TipsterGrid prediction AC Milan to win

Ablended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AC MilanDrawBologna
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.49.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — AC Milan is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
AC Milan1.78 Draw4.04 Bologna5.18

Price as of

Expected return at 1.78: -3.5% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Why this pick: AC Milan vs Bologna

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (AC Milan 10, Bologna 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

AC MilanBologna
2.24 xG per 90 1.54
2.02 npxG per 90 1.46
12.6 PPDA 15.4
6.4 Deep completions per 90 4.0
1.93 xPTS per 90 1.63

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

AC Milan vs Bologna: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAC MilanDrawBologna
Model49%25%26%
Market56%25%19%
Published54%25%21%
Edge-2%0%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.49.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

AC Milan vs Bologna odds movement

Median bookmaker price on AC Milan, 19 snapshots since 2026-10-19.

Opened 1.60Now 1.71 +0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
AC Milan1.601.71+0.11
Draw4.113.84-0.27
Bologna5.475.00-0.47

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

AC Milan and Bologna expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.06AC Milan
1.49Bologna
Total expected goals
3.55
Attack rating (AC Milan / Bologna)
1.40 / 1.07
Defence rating (AC Milan / Bologna)
1.14 / 1.10

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AC Milan vs Bologna score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.6% 2.5% 3.2% 1.6% 0.8% 1 4.2% 10.6% 6.5% 3.2% 1.7% 2 6.1% 9.1% 6.8% 3.3% 1.7% 3 4.2% 6.3% 4.6% 2.3% 1.2% 4+ 3.5% 5.2% 3.9% 1.9% 1.0%

Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: Bologna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AC Milan vs Bologna goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 69%
Over 3.5 47%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AC Milan vs Bologna

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2AC Milan54%1.84
Draw25%4.01
Bologna21%4.79
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569%1.45
Under 2.531%3.21
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.44
No31%3.26
Double chance1X (AC Milan or draw)79%1.26
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Bologna)46%2.18
Handicap -1AC Milan win by 2+30%3.34
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

AC Milan and Bologna recent form

AC Milan 4W 1D 1L
Bologna 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

AC Milan at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Bologna away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: AC Milan at home only, Bologna away only.

Injuries & availability

AC Milan absences

  • A. Rabiot calf injury
  • A. Saelemaekers ankle injury
  • D. Moreira thigh injury
  • M. Gabbia thigh injury
  • M. Gila ankle injury
  • R. Loftus-Cheek thigh injury
  • S. Chukwueze hip injury

Bologna absences

  • E. Holm thigh injury
  • J. Enem achilles tendon injury
  • R. Orsolini thigh injury
  • R. Piccoli hamstring injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

AC Milan vs Bologna head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: AC Milan 5 · draws 3 · Bologna 2.

AC MilanDrawsBologna
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-03Bologna0-3AC MilanSerie A
2025-09-14AC Milan1-0BolognaSerie A
2025-05-14AC Milan0-1BolognaCoppa Italia
2025-05-09AC Milan3-1BolognaSerie A
2025-02-27Bologna2-1AC MilanSerie A
2024-01-27AC Milan2-2BolognaSerie A
2023-08-21Bologna0-2AC MilanSerie A
2023-04-15Bologna1-1AC MilanSerie A
2022-08-27AC Milan2-0BolognaSerie A
2022-04-04AC Milan0-0BolognaSerie A

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot AC Milan to win Predicted score 2 – 1 A Bet on AC Milan
Our pick: AC Milan to win 18+ Bet Now