Updated
Premier League · 2026/27
Model-driven 1X2, over/under, BTTS and correct-score probabilities for every Chelsea fixture we cover — built from expected-goals ratings and de-vigged market odds, never from tips.
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2026/27 league season, 8 matches played. Straight tallies of Chelsea results, three points for a win.
Month · matches played that month. Both charts share one scale.
Month · matches played that month. Both charts share one scale.
Place in the 2026/27 table after each of 8 league matches, recomputed from results.
Ranked by points, then goal difference, then goals scored — from played results, not an imported table. Every point is the table as it stood on that date, when other clubs may have played fewer matches, so the last point can read differently from the current table at the top of this page. Hover a point for the match.
Next 8 scheduled — a prediction page appears once a fixture enters our publication window.
| Date | Match | Our pick | Our prob | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Manchester United (H) | ChelseaOur prob 54%Best odds 1.90 | 54% | 1.90 | |
| at Sunderland (A) | ChelseaOur prob 43%Best odds 2.17 | 43% | 2.17 | |
| vs Leeds (H) | not yet published | — | — | |
| at Nottingham Forest (A) | not yet published | — | — | |
| vs Crystal Palace (H) | not yet published | — | — | |
| vs Liverpool (H) | not yet published | — | — | |
| at Manchester City (A) | not yet published | — | — | |
| vs Aston Villa (H) | not yet published | — | — |
Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick (model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded). Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update. 22 more fixtures scheduled later this season.
Last 8 played — what we predicted and what happened.
| Date | Match | Our pick | Our prob | Score | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Tottenham (H)Our pick Chelsea · 50% | Chelsea to win | 50% | 0–2 | Missed | |
| at Everton (A)Our pick Everton · 38% | Everton to win | 38% | 2–0 | Missed | |
| vs Bournemouth (H)Our pick Chelsea · 50% | Chelsea to win | 50% | 5–1 | Correct | |
| at Brentford (A)Our pick Brentford · 41% | Brentford to win | 41% | 0–3 | Correct | |
| vs Hull City (H)Our pick Chelsea · 68% | Chelsea to win | 68% | 2–2 | Missed | |
| at Arsenal (A)Our pick Arsenal · 56% | Arsenal to win | 56% | 1–2 | Correct | |
| vs Brighton (H)Our pick Chelsea · 45% | Chelsea to win | 45% | 4–3 | Correct | |
| at Fulham (A)Our pick Chelsea · 45% | Chelsea to win | 45% | 3–2 | Correct |
Our pick = the 1X2 selection we published before kick-off, with the probability we gave it; Correct/Missed compares that pick with the final result. Scores are Chelsea’s goals first; H/A = home/away.
Chelsea at home Chelsea awayLeague matches this season only: Chelsea at home in the left column, away in the right.
M. RogersMidfielder
0 G 3 A