Fulham vs Chelsea

Why this pick: Fulham vs Chelsea

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Fulham 10, Chelsea 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Fulham vs Chelsea: model vs market

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Fulham vs Chelsea odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Chelsea, 11 snapshots since 2026-08-20.

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Fulham and Chelsea expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

Total expected goals

3.07

Attack rating (Fulham / Chelsea)

1.00 / 0.99

Defence rating (Fulham / Chelsea)

1.08 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Fulham vs Chelsea score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

Rows: Fulham goals. Columns: Chelsea goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Fulham vs Chelsea goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Both teams to score

63%

No goals (0–0)

6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

Fulham and Chelsea recent form

Fulham WDLLWD 2W 2D 2L

Chelsea LWLDLW 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.