Why this pick: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Eintracht Frankfurt 10, Hamburger SV 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV: model vs market
| Source | Eintracht Frankfurt | Draw | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| Market | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| Published | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.85 vs 1.33.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.69, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Eintracht Frankfurt, 19 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.62 | 1.65 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 4.48 | 4.47 | -0.01 |
| Hamburger SV | 4.69 | 4.65 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Eintracht Frankfurt and Hamburger SV expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.18
- Attack rating (Eintracht Frankfurt / Hamburger SV)
- 1.32 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Eintracht Frankfurt / Hamburger SV)
- 1.14 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Eintracht Frankfurt goals. Columns: Hamburger SV goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 59% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.72 | |
| Hamburger SV | 20% | 5.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.44 |
| No | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Eintracht Frankfurt or draw) | 80% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Hamburger SV) | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Eintracht Frankfurt win by 2+ | 43% | 2.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Eintracht Frankfurt and Hamburger SV recent form
Eintracht Frankfurt
3W 1D 2L
Hamburger SV
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Eintracht Frankfurt at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
Hamburger SV away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Eintracht Frankfurt at home only, Hamburger SV away only.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Eintracht Frankfurt 5 · draws 4 · Hamburger SV 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Hamburger SV | 1-3 | Eintracht Frankfurt | DFB Pokal |
| 2026-05-02 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1-2 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2025-12-20 | Hamburger SV | 1-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2018-05-05 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3-0 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2017-12-12 | Hamburger SV | 1-2 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2017-03-18 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 0-0 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2016-10-21 | Hamburger SV | 0-3 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2016-02-19 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 0-0 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2015-09-19 | Hamburger SV | 0-0 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2015-02-28 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2-1 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- SV Elversberg v Mainz 05 — match page 2026-10-30
- Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim 2026-10-31
- Borussia M.Gladbach v SC Paderborn 07 — match page 2026-10-31
- Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Augsburg v Freiburg — match page 2026-10-31
- FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Union Berlin vs FC Cologne 2026-10-31
- Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Eintracht Frankfurt, previous: Borussia Dortmund – Eintracht Frankfurt, 2026-10-24
- Hamburger SV, previous: SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV analysis