Why this pick: Augsburg vs Freiburg
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Augsburg 10, Freiburg 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Augsburg vs Freiburg: model vs market
| Source | Augsburg | Draw | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 22% | 31% |
| Market | 32% | 25% | 44% |
| Published | 36% | 24% | 40% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -3% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Augsburg vs Freiburg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Freiburg, 19 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Augsburg | 3.06 | 3.00 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.81 | 3.85 | +0.04 |
| Freiburg | 2.17 | 2.19 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Augsburg and Freiburg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.56
- Attack rating (Augsburg / Freiburg)
- 1.36 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Augsburg / Freiburg)
- 1.24 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Augsburg vs Freiburg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Augsburg goals. Columns: Freiburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Augsburg vs Freiburg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 79%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Augsburg vs Freiburg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Augsburg | 36% | 2.82 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.16 | |
| Freiburg | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 5.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79% | 1.27 |
| No | 21% | 4.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Augsburg or draw) | 60% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Freiburg) | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Freiburg win by 2+ | 17% | 5.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Augsburg and Freiburg recent form
Augsburg
1W 3D 2L
Freiburg
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Augsburg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 2.3 at home.
Freiburg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Augsburg at home only, Freiburg away only.
Augsburg vs Freiburg head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Augsburg 2 · draws 2 · Freiburg 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Augsburg | 2-2 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2025-08-23 | Freiburg | 1-3 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2025-03-02 | Augsburg | 0-0 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2024-10-19 | Freiburg | 3-1 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2024-02-25 | Augsburg | 2-1 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2023-10-01 | Freiburg | 2-0 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- SV Elversberg v Mainz 05 — match page 2026-10-30
- Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim 2026-10-31
- Borussia M.Gladbach v SC Paderborn 07 — match page 2026-10-31
- Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV 2026-10-31
- FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Union Berlin vs FC Cologne 2026-10-31
- Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Augsburg, previous: Augsburg vs Union Berlin: odds and pick
- Freiburg, previous: Freiburg vs Bayern Munich: odds and pick