Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 7

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV

· Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn· Referee Martin Petersen

Full time1 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was SC Paderborn 07 to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SC Paderborn 07DrawHamburger SV

Why this pick: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (SC Paderborn 07 6, Hamburger SV 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

SC Paderborn 07Hamburger SV
1.09 xG per 90 1.29
1.09 npxG per 90 1.21
16.5 PPDA 18.5
6.0 Deep completions per 90 5.0
0.77 xPTS per 90 1.03

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSC Paderborn 07DrawHamburger SV
Model48%27%25%
Market43%26%32%
Published44%26%30%
Edge+1%0%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.32.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV odds movement

Median bookmaker price on SC Paderborn 07, 25 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 2.27Now 2.23 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
SC Paderborn 072.272.23-0.04
Draw3.903.70-0.20
Hamburger SV2.803.00+0.20

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.06SC Paderborn 07
1.32Hamburger SV
Total expected goals
3.38
Attack rating (SC Paderborn 07 / Hamburger SV)
0.93 / 0.88
Defence rating (SC Paderborn 07 / Hamburger SV)
1.04 / 1.20

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.3% 3.5% 3.7% 1.6% 0.7% 1 5.7% 12.3% 6.8% 3.0% 1.3% 2 7.2% 9.5% 6.3% 2.8% 1.2% 3 4.4% 5.8% 3.9% 1.7% 0.7% 4+ 3.1% 4.1% 2.7% 1.2% 0.5%

Rows: SC Paderborn 07 goals. Columns: Hamburger SV goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2SC Paderborn 0744%2.28
Draw26%3.85
Hamburger SV30%3.32
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.63
Under 2.539%2.59
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.57
No36%2.76
Double chance1X (SC Paderborn 07 or draw)70%1.43
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Hamburger SV)56%1.78
Handicap -1SC Paderborn 07 win by 2+28%3.59
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV recent form

SC Paderborn 07 1W 2D 3L
Hamburger SV 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

SC Paderborn 07 at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.

Hamburger SV away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: SC Paderborn 07 at home only, Hamburger SV away only.

Injuries & availability

SC Paderborn 07 absences

  • M. Hoffmeier muscle injury
  • N. Awortwie-Grant knee injury
  • O. Batista Meier ankle injury
  • S. Klaas muscle injury
  • T. Gayret knee injury

Hamburger SV absences

  • M. Vuskovic doping
  • N. Remberg knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

SC Paderborn 07 lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 15 N. Noll
  2. 22 M. Hansen
  3. 25 T. Scheller
  4. 21 J. ter Horst
  5. 23 R. Obermair
  6. 40 G. Vidović
  7. 5 S. Castañeda
  8. 28 L. Ulrich
  9. 17 L. Curda
  10. 27 S. Tigges
  11. 30 S. Marino

Bench: M. Schubert, Ruben Müller, Jonah Benedict Sticker, T. Baack, R. Philippe, S. Michel, M. Pieringer, F. Götze, D. Zeitler

Hamburger SV lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 1 Daniel Heuer Fernandes
  2. 17 W. Omari
  3. 33 S. Bornauw
  4. 43 S. Nandja
  5. 3 D. Møller Wolfe
  6. 28 M. Muheim
  7. 4 B. Nadir
  8. 5 M. Adeline
  9. 7 Z. El Ouahdi
  10. 15 Y. Poulsen
  11. 20 Fábio Vieira

Bench: A. Sambi Lokonga, T. Moffi, A. Grønbæk, S. Tangvik, Otto Emerson Stange, Kofi Jeremy Amoako, L. Lemke, Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit, J. Bissi Mouelle

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: SC Paderborn 07 4 · draws 2 · Hamburger SV 4.

SC Paderborn 07DrawsHamburger SV
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-03-02SC Paderborn 072-0Hamburger SV2. Bundesliga
2024-09-28Hamburger SV2-2SC Paderborn 072. Bundesliga
2024-05-10SC Paderborn 071-0Hamburger SV2. Bundesliga
2023-12-09Hamburger SV1-2SC Paderborn 072. Bundesliga
2023-05-05Hamburger SV2-2SC Paderborn 072. Bundesliga
2022-10-30SC Paderborn 072-3Hamburger SV2. Bundesliga
2022-04-02Hamburger SV1-2SC Paderborn 072. Bundesliga
2021-10-22SC Paderborn 071-2Hamburger SV2. Bundesliga
2021-01-30Hamburger SV3-1SC Paderborn 072. Bundesliga
2020-09-28SC Paderborn 073-4Hamburger SV2. Bundesliga

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match