SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05 Prediction 30.10.2026

Why this pick: SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (SV Elversberg 8, Mainz 05 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

SV ElversbergMainz 05

1.61 xG per 90 2.46

1.37 npxG per 90 2.36

11.7 PPDA 13.2

5.9 Deep completions per 90 7.7

0.79 xPTS per 90 1.69

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	SV Elversberg	Draw	Mainz 05
Model	32%	23%	45%
Market	31%	25%	45%
Published	31%	24%	45%
Edge	0%	0%	0%

Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.16, recorded 2026-10-28 — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05 odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Mainz 05, 19 snapshots since 2026-10-19.

Opened 2.12Now 2.13 +0.01

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
SV Elversberg	3.23	3.11	-0.12
Draw	3.72	3.83	+0.10
Mainz 05	2.12	2.13	+0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

SV Elversberg and Mainz 05 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.10SV Elversberg

2.23Mainz 05

Total expected goals: 4.32
Attack rating (SV Elversberg / Mainz 05): 1.03 / 1.35
Defence rating (SV Elversberg / Mainz 05): 1.14 / 1.10

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.0% 2.3% 4.0% 3.0% 2.8% 1 1.7% 8.2% 7.6% 5.7% 5.3% 2 2.9% 6.5% 7.2% 5.4% 5.0% 3 1.8% 4.1% 4.5% 3.4% 3.2% 4+ 1.3% 3.0% 3.3% 2.4% 2.3%

Rows: SV Elversberg goals. Columns: Mainz 05 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 93%

Over 2.5 78%

Over 3.5 59%

Both teams to score: 77%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	SV Elversberg	31%	3.23
	Draw	24%	4.11
	Mainz 05	45%	2.24
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	78%	1.29
	Under 2.5	22%	4.51
Both teams to score	Yes	77%	1.30
	No	23%	4.36
Double chance	1X (SV Elversberg or draw)	55%	1.81
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or Mainz 05)	69%	1.45
Handicap -1	Mainz 05 win by 2+	27%	3.66
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

SV Elversberg and Mainz 05 recent form

SV Elversberg 1W 1D 4L

Mainz 05 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

SV Elversberg at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-0-1
Win rate: 67%
Goals for / match: 2.67
Goals against / match: 2.33
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Mainz 05 away

Record (W-D-L): 3-0-0
Win rate: 100%
Goals for / match: 3.33
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 2 of 3

They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
They average 3.3 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: SV Elversberg at home only, Mainz 05 away only.

Injuries & availability

SV Elversberg absences

J. Gyamerah thigh injury
L. Seifert ankle injury
N. Darvich hamstring injury
T. Zimmerschied ankle injury

Mainz 05 absences

D. Kohr foot injury
O. Ruoppi knee injury
Silas broken shinbone

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05 head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: SV Elversberg 0 · draws 1 · Mainz 05 1.

0% 50% 50%

SV ElversbergDrawsMainz 05

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2023-08-12	SV Elversberg	0-1	Mainz 05	DFB Pokal
2021-08-08	SV Elversberg	2-2	Mainz 05	DFB Pokal

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim 2026-10-31
Borussia M.Gladbach v SC Paderborn 07 — match page 2026-10-31
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV 2026-10-31
Augsburg v Freiburg — match page 2026-10-31
FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Union Berlin vs FC Cologne 2026-10-31
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats 2026-10-31

Before and after this match

SV Elversberg, previous: RasenBallsport Leipzig – SV Elversberg, 2026-10-24
Mainz 05, previous: Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen prediction

Prediction snapshot Mainz 05 to win Predicted score 1 – 2 B Bet on Mainz 05