Why this pick: Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Bayer Leverkusen 10, VfB Stuttgart 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart: model vs market
| Source | Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| Market | 52% | 22% | 25% |
| Published | 54% | 22% | 24% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.67 vs 1.46.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bayer Leverkusen, 19 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1.79 | 1.81 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 4.33 | 4.28 | -0.05 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 3.78 | 3.75 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.14
- Attack rating (Bayer Leverkusen / VfB Stuttgart)
- 1.31 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Bayer Leverkusen / VfB Stuttgart)
- 0.82 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bayer Leverkusen goals. Columns: VfB Stuttgart goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 54% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.51 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.40 |
| No | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bayer Leverkusen or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or VfB Stuttgart) | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayer Leverkusen win by 2+ | 37% | 2.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart recent form
Bayer Leverkusen
5W 0D 1L
VfB Stuttgart
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bayer Leverkusen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
VfB Stuttgart away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bayer Leverkusen at home only, VfB Stuttgart away only.
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen 1 · draws 3 · VfB Stuttgart 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | VfB Stuttgart | 3-1 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 2026-01-10 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1-4 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2025-03-16 | VfB Stuttgart | 3-4 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 2024-11-01 | Bayer Leverkusen | 0-0 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2024-04-27 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2-2 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2023-12-10 | VfB Stuttgart | 1-1 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- SV Elversberg v Mainz 05 — match page 2026-10-30
- Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim 2026-10-31
- Borussia M.Gladbach v SC Paderborn 07 — match page 2026-10-31
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV 2026-10-31
- Augsburg v Freiburg — match page 2026-10-31
- FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Union Berlin vs FC Cologne 2026-10-31
- Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Bayer Leverkusen, previous: Hoffenheim v Bayer Leverkusen analysis
- VfB Stuttgart, previous: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach prediction