Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 5

Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04

· Europa-Park-Stadion, Freiburg· Referee Martin Petersen

Full time2 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Freiburg to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FreiburgDrawFC Schalke 04

Why this pick: Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Freiburg 10, FC Schalke 04 4). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

FreiburgFC Schalke 04
1.59 xG per 90 1.64
1.59 npxG per 90 1.64
13.1 PPDA 25.9
6.1 Deep completions per 90 5.5
1.56 xPTS per 90 1.07

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFreiburgDrawFC Schalke 04
Model44%30%26%
Market58%24%19%
Published54%25%21%
Edge-4%+2%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.17.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Freiburg, 47 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 1.61Now 1.65 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Freiburg1.611.65+0.04
Draw4.164.05-0.11
FC Schalke 044.905.10+0.20

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Freiburg and FC Schalke 04 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.72Freiburg
1.17FC Schalke 04
Total expected goals
2.90
Attack rating (Freiburg / FC Schalke 04)
1.28 / 0.93
Defence rating (Freiburg / FC Schalke 04)
0.86 / 0.73

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.9% 5.3% 4.5% 1.8% 0.7% 1 7.8% 14.3% 7.0% 2.7% 1.0% 2 7.9% 9.3% 5.4% 2.1% 0.8% 3 4.1% 4.8% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 2.2% 2.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Freiburg goals. Columns: FC Schalke 04 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Freiburg54%1.84
Draw25%3.98
FC Schalke 0421%4.85
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.95
Under 2.549%2.05
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.76
No43%2.31
Double chance1X (Freiburg or draw)79%1.26
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or FC Schalke 04)46%2.19
Handicap -1Freiburg win by 2+23%4.29
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Freiburg and FC Schalke 04 recent form

Freiburg 5W 1D 0L
FC Schalke 04 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Freiburg at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.50
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

FC Schalke 04 away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Freiburg at home only, FC Schalke 04 away only.

Injuries & availability

Freiburg absences

  • B. Ogbus injury
  • B. Yilmaz knock

FC Schalke 04 absences

  • D. Ljubicic knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Freiburg lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 M. Backhaus
  2. 33 J. Makengo
  3. 3 P. Lienhart
  4. 28 M. Ginter
  5. 29 P. Treu
  6. 16 Y. Engelhardt
  7. 8 M. Eggestein
  8. 7 D. Scherhant
  9. 14 Y. Suzuki
  10. 19 J. Beste
  11. 31 I. Matanović

Bench: P. Osterhage, L. Höler, L. Kübler, Cyriaque Kalou Irié, J. Huth, C. Günter, V. Grifo, M. Rosenfelder, K. Goto

FC Schalke 04 lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 L. Karius
  2. 4 H. Kuruçay
  3. 25 N. Katić
  4. 39 M. Wöber
  5. 8 R. Gosens
  6. 13 S. Tanaka
  7. 23 S. El-Faouzi
  8. 17 A. Gantenbein
  9. 20 J. Adamu
  10. 19 K. Karaman
  11. 9 M. Sylla

Bench: T. Becker, R. Schallenberg, Hwang Hee-Chan, E. Džeko, K. Müller, A. Aouchiche, J. Dina Ebimbe, Vitalie Becker, M. Ayhan

Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Freiburg 6 · draws 2 · FC Schalke 04 2.

FreiburgDrawsFC Schalke 04
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-04-23Freiburg4-0FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
2022-10-30FC Schalke 040-2FreiburgBundesliga
2021-04-17Freiburg4-0FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
2020-12-16FC Schalke 040-2FreiburgBundesliga
2020-06-27Freiburg4-0FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
2019-12-21FC Schalke 042-2FreiburgBundesliga
2019-02-16FC Schalke 040-0FreiburgBundesliga
2018-09-25Freiburg1-0FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
2018-03-31FC Schalke 042-0FreiburgBundesliga
2017-11-04Freiburg0-1FC Schalke 04Bundesliga

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match