Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 5

Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen

· MEWA Arena, Mainz· Referee Max Burda

Full time3 – 4

TipsterGrid prediction was Bayer Leverkusen to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Mainz 05DrawBayer Leverkusen

Why this pick: Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Mainz 05 10, Bayer Leverkusen 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Mainz 05Bayer Leverkusen
2.55 xG per 90 2.80
2.38 npxG per 90 2.63
13.9 PPDA 11.4
8.5 Deep completions per 90 14.7
1.88 xPTS per 90 2.01

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMainz 05DrawBayer Leverkusen
Model40%23%38%
Market32%25%43%
Published34%24%42%
Edge+2%-1%-1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bayer Leverkusen, 45 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 2.35Now 2.24 -0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Mainz 052.733.00+0.27
Draw3.743.88+0.14
Bayer Leverkusen2.352.24-0.11

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.39Mainz 05
2.10Bayer Leverkusen
Total expected goals
4.50
Attack rating (Mainz 05 / Bayer Leverkusen)
1.62 / 1.42
Defence rating (Mainz 05 / Bayer Leverkusen)
1.02 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.7% 1.7% 3.1% 2.2% 1.9% 1 1.8% 7.7% 6.7% 4.7% 4.0% 2 3.3% 6.9% 7.3% 5.1% 4.4% 3 2.4% 5.0% 5.2% 3.7% 3.1% 4+ 2.1% 4.4% 4.6% 3.3% 2.8%

Rows: Mainz 05 goals. Columns: Bayer Leverkusen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 80%
Over 3.5 62%
Both teams to score
79%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Mainz 0534%2.94
Draw24%4.12
Bayer Leverkusen42%2.40
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.580%1.25
Under 2.520%4.93
Both teams to scoreYes79%1.27
No21%4.74
Double chance1X (Mainz 05 or draw)58%1.72
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Bayer Leverkusen)66%1.52
Handicap -1Bayer Leverkusen win by 2+22%4.59
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen recent form

Mainz 05 4W 1D 1L
Bayer Leverkusen 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Mainz 05 at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

Bayer Leverkusen away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Mainz 05 at home only, Bayer Leverkusen away only.

Injuries & availability

Mainz 05 absences

  • D. Kohr foot injury
  • O. Ruoppi knee injury
  • P. Nebel muscle injury
  • R. Zentner hand injury
  • S. Widmer knee injury
  • Silas broken shinbone

Bayer Leverkusen absences

  • C. Kofane muscle injury
  • G. Doue calf injury
  • K. Eichhorn illness
  • M. Culbreath foot injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Mainz 05 lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 1 A. Schwolow
  2. 48 K. Potulski
  3. 3 F. Gruber
  4. 4 S. Posch
  5. 2 P. Mwene
  6. 5 E. Martel
  7. 6 K. Sano
  8. 10 N. Amiri
  9. 19 A. Caci
  10. 9 P. Tietz
  11. 23 S. Becker

Bench: Lee Jae-Sung, R. Königsdörffer, L. Maloney, S. Bell, B. Hollerbach, D. da Costa, S. Kawasaki, M. Kinzig, R. Nakuzola

Bayer Leverkusen lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 M. Flekken
  2. 3 Miguel Gutiérrez
  3. 2 F. Medina
  4. 12 E. Tapsoba
  5. 4 J. Quansah
  6. 24 Aleix García
  7. 8 R. Andrich
  8. 9 Afonso Moreira
  9. 30 I. Maza
  10. 19 M. Diaby
  11. 14 P. Schick

Bench: L. Badé, E. Fernández, J. Hofmann, M. Tillman, M. Terrier, Lucas Vázquez, V. Boniface, N. Tella, J. Blaswich

Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Mainz 05 2 · draws 2 · Bayer Leverkusen 6.

Mainz 05DrawsBayer Leverkusen
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-28Bayer Leverkusen1-1Mainz 05Bundesliga
2025-10-18Mainz 053-4Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
2025-05-17Mainz 052-2Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
2025-01-14Bayer Leverkusen1-0Mainz 05Bundesliga
2024-02-23Bayer Leverkusen2-1Mainz 05Bundesliga
2023-09-30Mainz 050-3Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
2023-02-19Bayer Leverkusen2-3Mainz 05Bundesliga
2022-08-27Mainz 050-3Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
2022-02-18Mainz 053-2Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
2021-09-25Bayer Leverkusen1-0Mainz 05Bundesliga

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match