Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 5

SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart

· Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn· Referee Felix Zwayer

Full time0 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was VfB Stuttgart to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SC Paderborn 07DrawVfB Stuttgart

Why this pick: SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (SC Paderborn 07 4, VfB Stuttgart 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

SC Paderborn 07VfB Stuttgart
0.77 xG per 90 2.04
0.77 npxG per 90 1.96
18.4 PPDA 13.7
5.0 Deep completions per 90 7.8
0.73 xPTS per 90 1.11

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSC Paderborn 07DrawVfB Stuttgart
Model42%24%33%
Market19%20%61%
Published25%21%54%
Edge+6%+1%-7%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart odds movement

Median bookmaker price on VfB Stuttgart, 45 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 1.62Now 1.57 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
SC Paderborn 074.554.97+0.42
Draw4.414.75+0.34
VfB Stuttgart1.621.57-0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.24SC Paderborn 07
1.78VfB Stuttgart
Total expected goals
4.01
Attack rating (SC Paderborn 07 / VfB Stuttgart)
0.99 / 1.23
Defence rating (SC Paderborn 07 / VfB Stuttgart)
1.00 / 1.23

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.9% 2.4% 3.6% 2.1% 1.4% 1 2.9% 9.7% 7.2% 4.3% 2.8% 2 4.6% 8.1% 7.2% 4.3% 2.8% 3 3.1% 5.5% 4.9% 2.9% 1.9% 4+ 2.5% 4.4% 3.9% 2.3% 1.5%

Rows: SC Paderborn 07 goals. Columns: VfB Stuttgart goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 73%
Over 3.5 52%
Both teams to score
74%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2SC Paderborn 0725%4.00
Draw21%4.73
VfB Stuttgart54%1.86
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573%1.37
Under 2.527%3.70
Both teams to scoreYes74%1.36
No26%3.79
Double chance1X (SC Paderborn 07 or draw)46%2.17
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or VfB Stuttgart)75%1.33
Handicap -1VfB Stuttgart win by 2+18%5.63
Push (exactly one goal)15%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart recent form

SC Paderborn 07 3W 1D 2L
VfB Stuttgart 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

SC Paderborn 07 at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

VfB Stuttgart away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
3.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: SC Paderborn 07 at home only, VfB Stuttgart away only.

Injuries & availability

SC Paderborn 07 absences

  • L. Eickel back injury
  • M. Hoffmeier muscle injury
  • N. Awortwie-Grant knee injury
  • S. Klaas muscle injury
  • T. Gayret knee injury

VfB Stuttgart absences

  • A. Al Dakhil knee injury
  • D. Zagadou muscle injury
  • J. Diehl muscle injury
  • N. Nartey muscle injury
  • T. Tomas muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

SC Paderborn 07 lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 15 N. Noll
  2. 22 M. Hansen
  3. 25 T. Scheller
  4. 21 J. ter Horst
  5. 23 R. Obermair
  6. 40 G. Vidović
  7. 5 S. Castañeda
  8. 28 L. Ulrich
  9. 17 L. Curda
  10. 30 S. Marino
  11. 18 M. Pieringer

Bench: M. Schubert, Ruben Müller, Jonah Benedict Sticker, T. Baack, O. Batista Meier, R. Philippe, S. Michel, F. Götze, S. Tigges

VfB Stuttgart lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 41 D. Seimen
  2. 7 M. Mittelstädt
  3. 3 R. Hendriks
  4. 24 J. Chabot
  5. 10 C. Führich
  6. 6 A. Stiller
  7. 16 A. Karazor
  8. 4 J. Vagnoman
  9. 26 D. Undav
  10. 18 J. Leweling
  11. 9 E. Demirović

Bench: F. Bredlow, B. El Khannouss, D. Pejčinović, L. Stergiou, G. Prömel, L. Assignon, Finn Jeltsch, L. Sauer, Y. Spalt

SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: SC Paderborn 07 0 · draws 1 · VfB Stuttgart 2.

SC Paderborn 07DrawsVfB Stuttgart
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-01-31SC Paderborn 071-2VfB StuttgartDFB Pokal
2015-05-23SC Paderborn 071-2VfB StuttgartBundesliga
2014-12-20VfB Stuttgart0-0SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match