Why this pick: Celta Vigo vs Osasuna
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Celta Vigo 10, Osasuna 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna: model vs market
| Source | Celta Vigo | Draw | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 30% | 36% |
| Market | 48% | 29% | 23% |
| Published | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +3% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Celta Vigo, 18 snapshots since 2026-08-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 1.98 | 1.98 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 3.33 | 3.30 | -0.03 |
| Osasuna | 3.87 | 4.10 | +0.23 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Celta Vigo and Osasuna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.75
- Attack rating (Celta Vigo / Osasuna)
- 0.87 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Celta Vigo / Osasuna)
- 1.21 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Celta Vigo goals. Columns: Osasuna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celta Vigo | 45% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Osasuna | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.68 |
| No | 41% | 2.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Celta Vigo or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Osasuna) | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Celta Vigo win by 2+ | 17% | 6.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Celta Vigo and Osasuna recent form
Celta Vigo
3W 2D 1L
Osasuna
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Injuries & availability
Celta Vigo absences
-
B. Iglesias
muscle injury
Osasuna absences
-
V. Rosier
hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Celta Vigo 4 · draws 2 · Osasuna 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | Celta Vigo | 1-2 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2025-10-26 | Osasuna | 2-3 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2025-02-21 | Celta Vigo | 1-0 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2024-09-01 | Osasuna | 3-2 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2024-02-04 | Osasuna | 0-3 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2023-08-13 | Celta Vigo | 0-2 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2023-03-06 | Osasuna | 0-0 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2022-11-05 | Celta Vigo | 1-2 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2022-01-19 | Celta Vigo | 2-0 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2021-08-23 | Osasuna | 0-0 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
- Alaves vs Getafe 2026-08-15
- Sevilla v Rayo Vallecano — match page 2026-08-15
- Racing Santander vs Villarreal — team news & stats 2026-08-16
- Espanyol vs Levante 2026-08-16
- Deportivo La Coruna v Elche — match page 2026-08-17
- Atletico Madrid vs Malaga — team news & stats 2026-08-19
- Valencia v Real Betis — match page 2026-08-25
- Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad — team news & stats 2026-08-26
Before and after this match
- Celta Vigo, previous: Valencia v Celta Vigo analysis
- Celta Vigo, next: Celta Vigo – Athletic Club, 2026-08-30
- Osasuna, previous: Osasuna vs Levante: odds and pick
- Osasuna, next: Osasuna – Getafe, 2026-08-31