Updated

La Liga · Matchday 1

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

· Bernabéu, Madrid· Referee Mateo Busquets Ferrer, Spain

Full time4 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Real Madrid to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Real MadridDrawReal Sociedad

Why this pick: Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Real Madrid 10, Real Sociedad 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Real MadridReal Sociedad
1.59 xG per 90 1.56
1.59 npxG per 90 1.34
12.4 PPDA 9.1
10.6 Deep completions per 90 5.5
1.71 xPTS per 90 1.31

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceReal MadridDrawReal Sociedad
Model66%20%14%
Market76%15%9%
Published73%17%10%
Edge-2%+1%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.45 vs 1.20.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Real Madrid, 16 snapshots since 2026-08-20.

Opened 1.39Now 1.27 -0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Real Madrid1.391.27-0.12
Draw5.006.21+1.21
Real Sociedad7.0010.56+3.56

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Real Madrid and Real Sociedad expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.45Real Madrid
1.20Real Sociedad
Total expected goals
3.65
Attack rating (Real Madrid / Real Sociedad)
1.23 / 1.06
Defence rating (Real Madrid / Real Sociedad)
1.01 / 1.27

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.7% 1.3% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 1 4.5% 8.5% 4.3% 1.7% 0.7% 2 7.6% 9.1% 5.5% 2.2% 0.9% 3 6.5% 7.8% 4.7% 1.9% 0.7% 4+ 7.8% 9.3% 5.6% 2.2% 0.9%

Rows: Real Madrid goals. Columns: Real Sociedad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 73%
Over 3.5 52%
Both teams to score
66%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Real Madrid73%1.37
Draw17%6.05
Real Sociedad10%9.62
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573%1.38
Under 2.527%3.66
Both teams to scoreYes66%1.52
No34%2.94
Double chance1X (Real Madrid or draw)90%1.12
12 (either side)83%1.20
X2 (draw or Real Sociedad)27%3.71
Handicap -1Real Madrid win by 2+46%2.18
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Real Madrid and Real Sociedad recent form

Real Madrid 5W 0D 1L
Real Sociedad 0W 3D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Real Sociedad away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Real Madrid at home only, Real Sociedad away only.

Injuries & availability

Real Madrid absences

  • A. Tchouameni muscle injury
  • Eder Militao hamstring injury
  • Endrick muscle injury
  • F. Mendy hip injury
  • R. Asencio muscle injury
  • Rodrygo knee injury
  • T. Pitarch knee injury

Real Sociedad absences

  • A. Odriozola knee injury
  • J. Gorrotxategi groin injury
  • P. Marin injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Real Madrid 7 · draws 2 · Real Sociedad 1.

Real MadridDrawsReal Sociedad
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-14Real Madrid4-1Real SociedadLa Liga
2025-09-13Real Sociedad1-2Real MadridLa Liga
2025-05-24Real Madrid2-0Real SociedadLa Liga
2025-04-01Real Madrid4-4Real SociedadCopa del Rey
2025-02-26Real Sociedad0-1Real MadridCopa del Rey
2024-09-14Real Sociedad0-2Real MadridLa Liga
2024-04-26Real Sociedad0-1Real MadridLa Liga
2023-09-17Real Madrid2-1Real SociedadLa Liga
2023-05-02Real Sociedad2-0Real MadridLa Liga
2023-01-29Real Madrid0-0Real SociedadLa Liga

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Before and after this match