Updated

La Liga · Matchday 2

Valencia vs Celta Vigo

· Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia· Referee Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain

Full time0 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Valencia to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ValenciaDrawCelta Vigo

Why this pick: Valencia vs Celta Vigo

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Valencia 10, Celta Vigo 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

ValenciaCelta Vigo
1.60 xG per 90 1.30
1.52 npxG per 90 1.23
13.4 PPDA 12.0
5.3 Deep completions per 90 7.6
1.55 xPTS per 90 1.11

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Valencia vs Celta Vigo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceValenciaDrawCelta Vigo
Model64%23%13%
Market38%31%32%
Published44%29%27%
Edge+7%-2%-5%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.04.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Valencia below our published probability: +6.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Valencia vs Celta Vigo odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Valencia, 6 snapshots since 2026-08-20.

Opened 2.36Now 2.54 +0.18
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Valencia2.362.54+0.18
Draw3.203.10-0.10
Celta Vigo3.203.00-0.20

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Valencia and Celta Vigo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.29Valencia
1.04Celta Vigo
Total expected goals
3.33
Attack rating (Valencia / Celta Vigo)
1.12 / 0.91
Defence rating (Valencia / Celta Vigo)
1.03 / 1.30

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Valencia vs Celta Vigo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.8% 1.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 1 6.1% 9.6% 4.1% 1.4% 0.5% 2 9.2% 9.6% 5.0% 1.7% 0.6% 3 7.4% 7.7% 4.0% 1.4% 0.4% 4+ 7.9% 8.2% 4.2% 1.5% 0.5%

Rows: Valencia goals. Columns: Celta Vigo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Valencia vs Celta Vigo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 45%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Valencia vs Celta Vigo

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Valencia44%2.27
Draw29%3.48
Celta Vigo27%3.69
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.65
Under 2.539%2.54
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.78
No44%2.28
Double chance1X (Valencia or draw)73%1.37
12 (either side)71%1.40
X2 (draw or Celta Vigo)56%1.79
Handicap -1Valencia win by 2+45%2.20
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Valencia and Celta Vigo recent form

Valencia 4W 1D 1L
Celta Vigo 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Valencia vs Celta Vigo head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Valencia 1 · draws 2 · Celta Vigo 3.

ValenciaDrawsCelta Vigo
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-05Valencia2-3Celta VigoLa Liga
2026-01-03Celta Vigo4-1ValenciaLa Liga
2025-02-02Valencia2-1Celta VigoLa Liga
2024-08-23Celta Vigo3-1ValenciaLa Liga
2024-05-26Celta Vigo2-2ValenciaLa Liga
2023-11-25Valencia0-0Celta VigoLa Liga

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Before and after this match