Osasuna vs Levante Prediction 24.08.2026

Why this pick: Osasuna vs Levante

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Osasuna 10, Levante 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

OsasunaLevante

1.58 xG per 90 1.71

1.35 npxG per 90 1.48

12.2 PPDA 13.2

5.4 Deep completions per 90 5.3

1.81 xPTS per 90 1.60

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Osasuna vs Levante: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Osasuna	Draw	Levante
Model	50%	26%	24%
Market	51%	27%	22%
Published	51%	27%	23%
Edge	0%	0%	+1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.34.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Osasuna vs Levante odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Osasuna, 10 snapshots since 2026-08-20.

Opened 1.83Now 1.88 +0.05

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Osasuna	1.83	1.88	+0.05
Draw	3.60	3.50	-0.10
Levante	4.33	4.33	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Osasuna and Levante expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.86Osasuna

1.34Levante

Total expected goals: 3.20
Attack rating (Osasuna / Levante): 1.09 / 1.21
Defence rating (Osasuna / Levante): 0.99 / 1.09

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Osasuna vs Levante score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.6% 3.0% 3.3% 1.5% 0.7% 1 5.3% 11.6% 6.5% 2.9% 1.3% 2 7.1% 9.5% 6.4% 2.8% 1.3% 3 4.6% 6.2% 4.1% 1.9% 0.8% 4+ 3.5% 4.7% 3.2% 1.4% 0.6%

Rows: Osasuna goals. Columns: Levante goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Osasuna vs Levante goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 86%

Over 2.5 64%

Over 3.5 42%

Both teams to score: 65%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Osasuna vs Levante

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Osasuna	51%	1.98
	Draw	27%	3.72
	Levante	23%	4.43
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	64%	1.56
	Under 2.5	36%	2.78
Both teams to score	Yes	65%	1.53
	No	35%	2.89
Double chance	1X (Osasuna or draw)	77%	1.29
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Levante)	49%	2.02
Handicap -1	Osasuna win by 2+	30%	3.35
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Osasuna and Levante recent form

Osasuna 1W 0D 5L

Levante 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Levante away

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-1
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.00
Goals against / match: 3.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Osasuna at home only, Levante away only.

Injuries & availability

Osasuna absences

V. Rosier hamstring injury

Levante absences

A. Primo shoulder injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Osasuna vs Levante head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Osasuna 4 · draws 2 · Levante 4.

40% 20% 40%

OsasunaDrawsLevante

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-05-08	Levante	3-2	Osasuna	La Liga
2025-12-08	Osasuna	2-0	Levante	La Liga
2022-03-19	Osasuna	3-1	Levante	La Liga
2021-12-05	Levante	0-0	Osasuna	La Liga
2021-02-14	Levante	0-1	Osasuna	La Liga
2020-09-27	Osasuna	1-3	Levante	La Liga
2020-01-24	Osasuna	2-0	Levante	La Liga
2019-09-29	Levante	1-1	Osasuna	La Liga
2014-03-01	Levante	2-0	Osasuna	La Liga
2013-09-29	Osasuna	0-1	Levante	La Liga

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

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Real Betis v Real Sociedad — match page 2026-08-21
Athletic Club vs Sevilla 2026-08-22
Valencia vs Celta Vigo 2026-08-22
Espanyol v Real Madrid — match page 2026-08-22
Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal — team news & stats 2026-08-23
Getafe vs Racing Santander 2026-08-23
Elche v Barcelona — match page 2026-08-23

Before and after this match

Osasuna, previous: Getafe v Osasuna analysis
Osasuna, next: Celta Vigo vs Osasuna: odds and pick
Levante, previous: Espanyol vs Levante prediction
Levante, next: Levante vs Real Betis: odds and pick