Why this pick: Valencia vs Real Betis
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Valencia 10, Real Betis 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Valencia vs Real Betis: model vs market
| Source | Valencia | Draw | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Market | 34% | 29% | 37% |
| Published | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.24.
- The market prices Valencia below our published probability: +4.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Valencia vs Real Betis odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Valencia, 13 snapshots since 2026-08-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 2.63 | 2.80 | +0.17 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
| Real Betis | 2.63 | 2.58 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Valencia and Real Betis expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.04
- Attack rating (Valencia / Real Betis)
- 1.05 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Valencia / Real Betis)
- 0.97 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Valencia vs Real Betis score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Valencia goals. Columns: Real Betis goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Valencia vs Real Betis goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Valencia vs Real Betis
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valencia | 38% | 2.62 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Real Betis | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.60 |
| No | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Valencia or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Betis) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Valencia win by 2+ | 30% | 3.30 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Valencia and Real Betis recent form
Valencia
3W 2D 1L
Real Betis
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Valencia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Valencia at home only, Real Betis away only.
Injuries & availability
Valencia absences
-
A. Mari
leg injury
-
D. Foulquier
knee injury
-
D. Lopez
knee injury
-
J. Copete
ankle injury
-
J. De Haas
ankle injury
-
S. Canos
knee injury
Real Betis absences
-
A. Ezzalzouli
knee injury
-
A. Ruibal
knee injury
-
D. Conde
shoulder injury
-
G. Lo Celso
muscle injury
-
G. Petit
muscle injury
-
J. Morante
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Valencia vs Real Betis head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Valencia 2 · draws 4 · Real Betis 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Real Betis | 2-1 | Valencia | La Liga |
| 2025-11-09 | Valencia | 1-1 | Real Betis | La Liga |
| 2025-05-23 | Real Betis | 1-1 | Valencia | La Liga |
| 2024-11-23 | Valencia | 4-2 | Real Betis | La Liga |
| 2024-04-20 | Valencia | 1-2 | Real Betis | La Liga |
| 2023-10-01 | Real Betis | 3-0 | Valencia | La Liga |
| 2023-06-04 | Real Betis | 1-1 | Valencia | La Liga |
| 2022-11-10 | Valencia | 3-0 | Real Betis | La Liga |
| 2022-05-10 | Valencia | 0-3 | Real Betis | La Liga |
| 2022-04-23 | Real Betis | 1-1 | Valencia | Copa del Rey |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
- Alaves vs Getafe 2026-08-15
- Sevilla v Rayo Vallecano — match page 2026-08-15
- Racing Santander vs Villarreal — team news & stats 2026-08-16
- Espanyol vs Levante 2026-08-16
- Deportivo La Coruna v Elche — match page 2026-08-17
- Atletico Madrid vs Malaga — team news & stats 2026-08-19
- Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad — team news & stats 2026-08-26
- Celta Vigo vs Osasuna 2026-08-27
Before and after this match
- Valencia, previous: Valencia v Celta Vigo analysis
- Valencia, next: Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia: odds and pick
- Real Betis, previous: Real Betis vs Real Sociedad prediction
- Real Betis, next: Levante vs Real Betis: odds and pick