Why this pick: Getafe vs Sevilla
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Getafe 10, Sevilla 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Getafe vs Sevilla: model vs market
| Source | Getafe | Draw | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 30% | 36% |
| Market | 30% | 32% | 38% |
| Published | 31% | 31% | 38% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.56, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Getafe vs Sevilla odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sevilla, 19 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | 2.82 | 3.20 | +0.38 |
| Draw | 2.97 | 3.00 | +0.03 |
| Sevilla | 2.79 | 2.49 | -0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Getafe and Sevilla expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.69
- Attack rating (Getafe / Sevilla)
- 0.78 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Getafe / Sevilla)
- 1.30 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Getafe vs Sevilla score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Getafe goals. Columns: Sevilla goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Getafe vs Sevilla goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Getafe vs Sevilla
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Getafe | 31% | 3.24 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Sevilla | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.71 |
| No | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Getafe or draw) | 62% | 1.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| X2 (draw or Sevilla) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sevilla win by 2+ | 18% | 5.68 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Getafe and Sevilla recent form
Getafe
1W 2D 3L
Sevilla
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Getafe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Sevilla away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Getafe at home only, Sevilla away only.
Getafe vs Sevilla head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Getafe 2 · draws 1 · Sevilla 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Getafe | 0-1 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2025-08-25 | Sevilla | 1-2 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2025-02-01 | Getafe | 0-0 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2024-09-14 | Sevilla | 1-0 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2024-03-30 | Getafe | 0-1 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2023-12-16 | Sevilla | 0-3 | Getafe | La Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Levante v Atletico Madrid — match page 2026-10-31
- Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo 2026-10-31
- Real Betis vs Malaga — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Barcelona vs Alaves — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna 2026-11-01
- Elche v Valencia — match page 2026-11-01
- Racing Santander vs Real Madrid — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Athletic Club v Real Sociedad — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Getafe, previous: Athletic Club vs Getafe prediction
- Sevilla, previous: Sevilla vs Osasuna: odds and pick