Why this pick: Racing Santander vs Real Madrid
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Racing Santander 10, Real Madrid 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Racing Santander vs Real Madrid: model vs market
| Source | Racing Santander | Draw | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 21% | 52% |
| Market | 9% | 13% | 78% |
| Published | 14% | 15% | 71% |
| Edge | +5% | +2% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 1.84.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.25, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Racing Santander vs Real Madrid odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Madrid, 19 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander | 9.00 | 10.25 | +1.25 |
| Draw | 6.90 | 7.15 | +0.25 |
| Real Madrid | 1.25 | 1.22 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Racing Santander and Real Madrid expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.46
- Attack rating (Racing Santander / Real Madrid)
- 1.17 / 1.66
- Defence rating (Racing Santander / Real Madrid)
- 1.36 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Racing Santander vs Real Madrid score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Racing Santander goals. Columns: Real Madrid goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Racing Santander vs Real Madrid goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 80%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Racing Santander vs Real Madrid
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Racing Santander | 14% | 7.25 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.64 | |
| Real Madrid | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83% | 1.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 17% | 5.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80% | 1.24 |
| No | 20% | 5.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Racing Santander or draw) | 29% | 3.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Madrid) | 86% | 1.16 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win by 2+ | 34% | 2.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Racing Santander and Real Madrid recent form
Racing Santander
2W 1D 3L
Real Madrid
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Racing Santander at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Real Madrid away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Racing Santander at home only, Real Madrid away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Levante v Atletico Madrid — match page 2026-10-31
- Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo 2026-10-31
- Real Betis vs Malaga — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Barcelona vs Alaves — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna 2026-11-01
- Elche v Valencia — match page 2026-11-01
- Getafe vs Sevilla 2026-11-01
- Athletic Club v Real Sociedad — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Racing Santander, previous: Racing Santander vs Espanyol prediction
- Real Madrid, previous: Barcelona vs Real Madrid: odds and pick