Updated

La Liga · Matchday 10

Sevilla vs Osasuna

· Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Seville· Referee Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias

Full time2 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Sevilla to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SevillaDrawOsasuna

Why this pick: Sevilla vs Osasuna

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Sevilla 10, Osasuna 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

SevillaOsasuna
1.27 xG per 90 1.39
1.12 npxG per 90 1.09
12.0 PPDA 11.3
6.3 Deep completions per 90 3.7
1.19 xPTS per 90 1.44

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Sevilla vs Osasuna: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSevillaDrawOsasuna
Model46%27%27%
Market52%28%20%
Published50%28%22%
Edge-1%0%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.37.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sevilla vs Osasuna odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sevilla, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-13.

Opened 1.80Now 1.86 +0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sevilla1.801.86+0.06
Draw3.203.42+0.22
Osasuna3.804.68+0.88

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sevilla and Osasuna expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.72Sevilla
1.37Osasuna
Total expected goals
3.09
Attack rating (Sevilla / Osasuna)
0.94 / 1.07
Defence rating (Sevilla / Osasuna)
1.10 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sevilla vs Osasuna score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.2% 3.7% 3.9% 1.8% 0.8% 1 5.5% 12.4% 7.1% 3.2% 1.5% 2 6.8% 9.3% 6.4% 2.9% 1.3% 3 4.1% 5.6% 3.8% 1.8% 0.8% 4+ 2.8% 3.8% 2.6% 1.2% 0.6%

Rows: Sevilla goals. Columns: Osasuna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sevilla vs Osasuna goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sevilla vs Osasuna

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sevilla50%2.00
Draw28%3.60
Osasuna22%4.51
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.63
Under 2.539%2.60
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.55
No36%2.81
Double chance1X (Sevilla or draw)78%1.28
12 (either side)72%1.38
X2 (draw or Osasuna)50%2.00
Handicap -1Sevilla win by 2+26%3.81
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Sevilla and Osasuna recent form

Sevilla 2W 2D 2L
Osasuna 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sevilla at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Osasuna away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-3
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
3.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Sevilla at home only, Osasuna away only.

Injuries & availability

Sevilla absences

  • M. Sierra shoulder injury
  • Marcao muscle injury

Osasuna absences

  • A. Bonel inactive
  • A. Oroz hamstring injury
  • J. Herrando muscle injury
  • R. Del Castillo muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Sevilla lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 O. Vlachodimos
  2. 17 G. Suazo
  3. 4 Kike Salas
  4. 5 Andrés Castrín
  5. 2 Juan Iglesias
  6. 20 Félix Correia
  7. 24 Y. Fofana
  8. 6 L. Agoumé
  9. 21 C. Ejuke
  10. 19 L. Stassin
  11. 16 Isaac

Bench: Julio Díaz del Romo, Alfon González, G. Kochorashvili, R. Ure, Peque Fernández, R. Vargas, A. Sangante, Fran González, Manu Bueno, Fábio Cardoso, Jon Guridi, José Ángel Carmona

Osasuna lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 13 Aitor Fernández
  2. 23 Abel Bretones
  3. 22 F. Boyomo
  4. 24 Catena
  5. 19 V. Rosier
  6. 16 Moi Gómez
  7. 6 Lucas Torró
  8. 7 Moncayola
  9. 21 Jonathan Dubasin
  10. 17 A. Budimir
  11. 14 Rubén García

Bench: Sergio Herrera, Iker Muñoz, Raúl García, Kike Barja, Diego Rico, Raul Moro, Mauro Echegoyen, Íñigo Arguibide, Asier Osambela, Rafa Fernández, U. Santos, R. Yeboah

Sevilla vs Osasuna head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Sevilla 1 · draws 4 · Osasuna 5.

SevillaDrawsOsasuna
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-26Osasuna2-1SevillaLa Liga
2025-11-08Sevilla1-0OsasunaLa Liga
2025-04-24Osasuna1-0SevillaLa Liga
2024-12-02Sevilla1-1OsasunaLa Liga
2024-01-28Sevilla1-1OsasunaLa Liga
2023-09-23Osasuna0-0SevillaLa Liga
2023-02-26Sevilla2-3OsasunaLa Liga
2023-01-25Osasuna2-1SevillaCopa del Rey
2022-08-12Osasuna2-1SevillaLa Liga
2022-02-05Osasuna0-0SevillaLa Liga

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match