Updated

La Liga · Matchday 10

Racing Santander vs Espanyol

· El Sardinero, Santander· Referee Jesus Gil Manzano

Full time2 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Racing Santander to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Racing SantanderDrawEspanyol

Why this pick: Racing Santander vs Espanyol

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Racing Santander 9, Espanyol 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Racing SantanderEspanyol
1.27 xG per 90 1.34
1.11 npxG per 90 1.34
11.4 PPDA 13.4
6.3 Deep completions per 90 6.1
1.02 xPTS per 90 1.41

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Racing Santander vs Espanyol: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRacing SantanderDrawEspanyol
Model43%27%30%
Market41%26%33%
Published42%26%32%
Edge+1%0%-1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Racing Santander vs Espanyol odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Racing Santander, 26 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 2.60Now 2.32 -0.28
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Racing Santander2.602.32-0.28
Draw3.603.65+0.05
Espanyol2.352.90+0.55

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Racing Santander and Espanyol expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.70Racing Santander
1.48Espanyol
Total expected goals
3.18
Attack rating (Racing Santander / Espanyol)
1.06 / 0.89
Defence rating (Racing Santander / Espanyol)
1.43 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Racing Santander vs Espanyol score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.8% 3.6% 4.2% 2.1% 1.1% 1 4.8% 12.1% 7.5% 3.7% 1.9% 2 6.1% 9.0% 6.7% 3.3% 1.7% 3 3.6% 5.4% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4+ 2.4% 3.6% 2.6% 1.3% 0.7%

Rows: Racing Santander goals. Columns: Espanyol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Racing Santander vs Espanyol goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
66%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Racing Santander vs Espanyol

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Racing Santander42%2.41
Draw26%3.80
Espanyol32%3.11
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.58
Under 2.537%2.73
Both teams to scoreYes66%1.51
No34%2.96
Double chance1X (Racing Santander or draw)68%1.47
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Espanyol)58%1.71
Handicap -1Racing Santander win by 2+24%4.14
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Racing Santander and Espanyol recent form

Racing Santander 1W 1D 4L
Espanyol 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Racing Santander at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.25
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.

Espanyol away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Racing Santander at home only, Espanyol away only.

Injuries & availability

Racing Santander absences

  • S. Eriksson shoulder injury

Espanyol absences

  • Jofre groin injury
  • K. Garcia hamstring injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Racing Santander lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 13 Julen Agirrezabala
  2. 17 Jorge Salinas
  3. 24 J. Belocian
  4. 5 Pablo Ramón
  5. 2 Álvaro Mantilla
  6. 18 M. Prati
  7. 23 Iván Martín
  8. 10 Iñigo Vicente
  9. 20 Sergio Canales
  10. 11 Andrés Martín
  11. 21 M. Zabiri

Bench: Aarón Martín, Íñigo Sainz-Maza, G. Guliashvili, André Almeida, Juan Carlos Arana, Asier Villalibre, M. Gueye, Pablo García, Facundo González, Iker Luque, Pedro Felipe, Laro Gómez

Espanyol lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 Ángel Fortuño
  2. 3 Q. Hartman
  3. 6 L. Cabrera
  4. 16 V. Drkušić
  5. 23 O. El Hilali
  6. 15 Bryan Zaragoza
  7. 10 Pol Lozano
  8. 8 Edu Expósito
  9. 22 Álex Calatrava
  10. 28 Javier Hernandez
  11. 9 Roberto Fernández

Bench: Gorosabel, Urko González, C. Riedel, Javi Puado, Pere Milla, M. Dmitrović, Unai Núñez, Marcos Fernández, Gabriel Moscardo, Roger Hinojo, T. Dolan, Rafel Bauzà

Racing Santander vs Espanyol head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Racing Santander 2 · draws 1 · Espanyol 3.

Racing SantanderDrawsEspanyol
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-02-10Racing Santander2-0EspanyolSegunda División
2023-08-19Espanyol2-0Racing SantanderSegunda División
2012-03-19Espanyol3-1Racing SantanderLa Liga
2011-10-22Racing Santander0-1EspanyolLa Liga
2011-04-03Espanyol1-2Racing SantanderLa Liga
2010-11-14Racing Santander0-0EspanyolLa Liga

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match