Updated

La Liga · Matchday 10

Barcelona vs Real Madrid

· Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona· Referee Juan Martinez Munuera

Full time1 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Barcelona to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 3 – 2

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BarcelonaDrawReal Madrid

Why this pick: Barcelona vs Real Madrid

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Barcelona 10, Real Madrid 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

BarcelonaReal Madrid
3.91 xG per 90 2.48
3.48 npxG per 90 2.16
6.5 PPDA 13.8
14.1 Deep completions per 90 13.3
2.58 xPTS per 90 2.18

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Barcelona vs Real Madrid: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBarcelonaDrawReal Madrid
Model64%16%20%
Market60%17%24%
Published61%17%23%
Edge+1%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.26 vs 2.03.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Barcelona vs Real Madrid odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Barcelona, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.65Now 1.62 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Barcelona1.651.62-0.03
Draw4.885.75+0.87
Real Madrid4.884.10-0.78

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Barcelona and Real Madrid expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.26Barcelona
2.03Real Madrid
Total expected goals
5.29
Attack rating (Barcelona / Real Madrid)
2.13 / 1.70
Defence rating (Barcelona / Real Madrid)
1.03 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Barcelona vs Real Madrid score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 1 0.9% 3.6% 3.0% 2.1% 1.7% 2 2.5% 5.1% 5.2% 3.5% 2.9% 3 2.9% 5.8% 5.9% 4.0% 3.3% 4+ 5.8% 11.8% 12.0% 8.2% 6.6%

Rows: Barcelona goals. Columns: Real Madrid goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Barcelona vs Real Madrid goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 99%
Over 1.5 98%
Over 2.5 91%
Over 3.5 79%
Both teams to score
85%
No goals (0–0)
1%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Barcelona vs Real Madrid

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Barcelona61%1.65
Draw17%6.01
Real Madrid23%4.41
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.591%1.10
Under 2.59%10.89
Both teams to scoreYes85%1.18
No15%6.51
Double chance1X (Barcelona or draw)77%1.29
12 (either side)83%1.20
X2 (draw or Real Madrid)39%2.54
Handicap -1Barcelona win by 2+47%2.12
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Barcelona and Real Madrid recent form

Barcelona 5W 0D 1L
Real Madrid 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Barcelona at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.25
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 9 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 4.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

Real Madrid away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Barcelona at home only, Real Madrid away only.

Injuries & availability

Barcelona absences

  • A. Christensen muscle injury
  • D. Olmo groin injury
  • E. Garcia muscle injury
  • J. Kounde ankle injury
  • R. Bardghji knee injury

Real Madrid absences

  • F. Mendy hip injury
  • R. Asencio broken leg
  • Rodrygo knee injury
  • Vinicius Junior suspended

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Barcelona lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 Joan García
  2. 2 João Cancelo
  3. 18 Gerard Martín
  4. 5 Pau Cubarsí Paredes
  5. 12 X. Espart
  6. 7 Fermín
  7. 16 Rodri
  8. 8 Pedri
  9. 17 A. Gordon
  10. 11 Raphinha
  11. 10 Lamine Yamal

Bench: Alejandro Balde, B. Farinas, Gavi, Gabriel Jesus, W. Szczęsny, K. Adeyemi, F. de Jong, Marc Bernal, D. Livaković, H. Abdelkarim, O. Goren, A. Campos

Real Madrid lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 13 A. Lunin
  2. 17 Marc Cucurella
  3. 4 D. Huijsen
  4. 16 I. Konaté
  5. 8 F. Valverde
  6. 5 J. Bellingham
  7. 20 Bernardo Silva
  8. 14 A. Tchouaméni
  9. 15 A. Güler
  10. 25 Y. Diomande
  11. 10 Kylian Mbappé

Bench: Éder Militão, E. Camavinga, Endrick, T. Alexander-Arnold, Álvaro Fernández, Carlos Espí, Brahim Díaz, A. Rüdiger, D. Dumfries, Sergio Mestre, Thiago Pitarch, I. Voloshyn

Barcelona vs Real Madrid head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Barcelona 7 · draws 0 · Real Madrid 3.

BarcelonaDrawsReal Madrid
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Barcelona2-0Real MadridLa Liga
2026-01-11Barcelona3-2Real MadridSuper Cup
2025-10-26Real Madrid2-1BarcelonaLa Liga
2025-05-11Barcelona4-3Real MadridLa Liga
2025-04-26Barcelona3-2Real MadridCopa del Rey
2025-01-12Real Madrid2-5BarcelonaSuper Cup
2024-10-26Real Madrid0-4BarcelonaLa Liga
2024-08-03Barcelona2-1Real MadridFriendlies Clubs
2024-04-21Real Madrid3-2BarcelonaLa Liga
2024-01-14Real Madrid4-1BarcelonaSuper Cup

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match