Updated

Ligue 1 · Matchday 8

Lens vs Paris FC

· Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens· Referee Mathieu Vernice

Full time2 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Paris FC to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LensDrawParis FC

Why this pick: Lens vs Paris FC

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lens 10, Paris FC 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

LensParis FC
2.25 xG per 90 2.02
1.93 npxG per 90 1.79
12.6 PPDA 12.6
7.1 Deep completions per 90 8.2
1.74 xPTS per 90 2.08

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Lens vs Paris FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLensDrawParis FC
Model30%23%47%
Market37%27%37%
Published35%26%39%
Edge-2%-1%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.53.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Paris FC below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Lens vs Paris FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Paris FC, 27 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 3.27Now 2.60 -0.67
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Lens2.082.62+0.54
Draw3.753.60-0.15
Paris FC3.272.60-0.67

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lens and Paris FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.53Lens
1.86Paris FC
Total expected goals
3.39
Attack rating (Lens / Paris FC)
1.12 / 1.28
Defence rating (Lens / Paris FC)
1.15 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lens vs Paris FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.9% 6.5% 6.3% 3.9% 2.7% 1 5.1% 10.1% 9.1% 5.7% 4.0% 2 3.9% 7.2% 6.7% 4.1% 2.9% 3 1.9% 3.5% 3.2% 2.0% 1.4% 4+ 0.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.0% 0.7%

Rows: Lens goals. Columns: Paris FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lens vs Paris FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 64%
Over 3.5 42%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lens vs Paris FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Lens35%2.86
Draw26%3.89
Paris FC39%2.54
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564%1.56
Under 2.536%2.79
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.54
No35%2.85
Double chance1X (Lens or draw)61%1.65
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Paris FC)65%1.54
Handicap -1Paris FC win by 2+26%3.84
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Lens and Paris FC recent form

Lens 2W 1D 3L
Paris FC 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Lens at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Paris FC away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Lens at home only, Paris FC away only.

Injuries & availability

Lens absences

  • A. Sima muscle injury
  • I. Ganiou knee injury
  • J. Gradit muscle injury
  • M. Nawrocki knee injury
  • O. Edouard injury

Paris FC absences

  • J. Ikone thigh injury
  • N. Sangui muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Lens lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 40 R. Risser
  2. 20 J. Todibo
  3. 6 S. Baidoo
  4. 23 Saud Abdulhamid
  5. 14 M. Udol
  6. 21 A. Haidara
  7. 27 M. Cuisance
  8. 2 R. Aguilar
  9. 7 F. Sotoca
  10. 10 F. Thauvin
  11. 29 F. Ivanović

Bench: N. Čelik, A. Bulatović, Y. Titraoui, T. Hazard, M. Gorgelin, M. Skóraś, J. Kadile, K. Antonio, M. Soares

Paris FC lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 16 O. Nkambadio
  2. 6 Otávio
  3. 5 M. Mbow
  4. 42 D. Coppola
  5. 17 A. Camara
  6. 33 P. Lees-Melou
  7. 20 M. Lopez
  8. 15 L. Koleosho
  9. 7 P. Pagis
  10. 10 I. Kebbal
  11. 9 L. Sinayoko

Bench: E. Mbemba, E. Zabi, J. Krasso, O. Sissoko, R. Matondo, Y. Koré, M. Simon, T. De Smet

Lens vs Paris FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Lens 5 · draws 3 · Paris FC 2.

LensDrawsParis FC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-14Paris FC0-5LensLigue 1
2025-10-19Lens2-1Paris FCLigue 1
2022-07-02Lens0-0Paris FCFriendlies Clubs
2020-08-05Lens1-2Paris FCFriendlies Clubs
2020-03-02Paris FC0-2LensLigue 2
2019-09-28Lens2-1Paris FCLigue 2
2019-03-03Paris FC2-0LensLigue 2
2018-09-28Lens0-0Paris FCLigue 2
2018-04-30Lens1-0Paris FCLigue 2
2017-12-08Paris FC2-2LensLigue 2

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match