Why this pick: Aston Villa vs Fulham
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Aston Villa 10, Fulham 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Aston Villa vs Fulham: model vs market
| Source | Aston Villa | Draw | Fulham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 22% | 23% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 27% |
| Published | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.50.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Aston Villa vs Fulham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aston Villa, 21 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 2.04 | 1.98 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.70 | +0.08 |
| Fulham | 4.03 | 3.55 | -0.48 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aston Villa and Fulham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.68
- Attack rating (Aston Villa / Fulham)
- 1.48 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Aston Villa / Fulham)
- 1.03 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aston Villa vs Fulham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aston Villa goals. Columns: Fulham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aston Villa vs Fulham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aston Villa vs Fulham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aston Villa | 49% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Fulham | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aston Villa or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Fulham) | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aston Villa win by 2+ | 35% | 2.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Aston Villa and Fulham recent form
Aston Villa
5W 1D 0L
Fulham
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aston Villa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fulham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aston Villa at home only, Fulham away only.
Aston Villa vs Fulham head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Aston Villa 5 · draws 0 · Fulham 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Fulham | 1-0 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2025-09-28 | Aston Villa | 3-1 | Fulham | Premier League |
| 2025-05-03 | Aston Villa | 1-0 | Fulham | Premier League |
| 2024-10-19 | Fulham | 1-3 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2024-02-17 | Fulham | 1-2 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2023-11-12 | Aston Villa | 3-1 | Fulham | Premier League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Chelsea vs Manchester United — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Bournemouth vs Leeds 2026-10-31
- Manchester City v Brighton — match page 2026-10-31
- Brentford vs Nottingham Forest — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Hull City vs Ipswich 2026-10-31
- Coventry v Sunderland — match page 2026-10-31
- Tottenham vs Crystal Palace — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Liverpool v Arsenal — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Aston Villa, previous: Aston Villa vs Manchester City prediction
- Fulham, previous: Coventry vs Fulham: odds and pick