Updated

Premier League · Matchday 8

Aston Villa vs Manchester City

· Villa Park, Birmingham· Referee Peter Bankes

Full time2 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Manchester City to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

5% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Aston VillaDrawManchester City

Why this pick: Aston Villa vs Manchester City

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Aston Villa 10, Manchester City 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Aston VillaManchester City
1.44 xG per 90 2.36
1.44 npxG per 90 2.36
13.5 PPDA 9.0
7.8 Deep completions per 90 9.0
1.33 xPTS per 90 1.99

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Aston Villa vs Manchester City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAston VillaDrawManchester City
Model49%20%31%
Market19%22%59%
Published27%21%52%
Edge+7%0%-7%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Aston Villa vs Manchester City odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Manchester City, 27 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 1.70Now 1.63 -0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Aston Villa4.105.00+0.90
Draw3.904.40+0.50
Manchester City1.701.63-0.07

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Aston Villa and Manchester City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.46Aston Villa
2.07Manchester City
Total expected goals
4.54
Attack rating (Aston Villa / Manchester City)
1.58 / 1.75
Defence rating (Aston Villa / Manchester City)
0.96 / 1.01

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Aston Villa vs Manchester City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.7% 1.2% 2.0% 1.4% 1.2% 1 1.7% 5.8% 5.3% 3.6% 3.1% 2 3.2% 6.6% 6.8% 4.7% 3.9% 3 2.7% 5.7% 5.9% 4.1% 3.4% 4+ 3.3% 6.8% 7.0% 4.9% 4.1%

Rows: Aston Villa goals. Columns: Manchester City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Aston Villa vs Manchester City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 95%
Over 2.5 84%
Over 3.5 68%
Both teams to score
82%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Aston Villa vs Manchester City

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Aston Villa27%3.75
Draw21%4.67
Manchester City52%1.93
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.584%1.19
Under 2.516%6.39
Both teams to scoreYes82%1.23
No18%5.44
Double chance1X (Aston Villa or draw)48%2.08
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Manchester City)73%1.36
Handicap -1Manchester City win by 2+17%5.92
Push (exactly one goal)14%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Aston Villa and Manchester City recent form

Aston Villa 5W 1D 0L
Manchester City 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Aston Villa at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Manchester City away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.67
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 7 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Aston Villa at home only, Manchester City away only.

Injuries & availability

Aston Villa absences

  • A. Onana knee injury
  • A. Wan-Bissaka muscle injury
  • J. Manzambi calf injury
  • M. Cisse hip injury
  • M. Ruggeri muscle injury

Manchester City absences

  • A. Semenyo knee injury
  • M. Kovacic injury
  • M. Nunes knock
  • N. O'Reilly back injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Aston Villa lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Z. Suzuki
  2. 22 I. Maatsen
  3. 14 Pau Torres
  4. 3 V. Lindelöf
  5. 2 M. Cash
  6. 35 João Gomes
  7. 8 B. Kamara
  8. 7 J. McGinn
  9. 44 J. Manzambi
  10. 47 Alysson Edward
  11. 11 N. Jackson

Bench: T. Mings, R. Barkley, E. Buendía, I. Mbaye, L. Bogarde, L. Goretzka, Brian Madjo, M. Bizot, George Hemmings

Manchester City lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 G. Donnarumma
  2. 24 J. Gvardiol
  3. 6 M. Guéhi
  4. 3 Rúben Dias
  5. 45 A. Khusanov
  6. 17 E. Fernández
  7. 5 E. Anderson
  8. 11 J. Doku
  9. 10 R. Cherki
  10. 7 I. Ndiaye
  11. 9 E. Haaland

Bench: M. Kovačić, R. Aït-Nouri, Vitor Nunes, G. Rulli, A. Bouaddi, N. O'Reilly, P. Foden, R. McAidoo, R. Lewis

Aston Villa vs Manchester City head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Aston Villa 4 · draws 1 · Manchester City 5.

Aston VillaDrawsManchester City
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-24Manchester City1-2Aston VillaPremier League
2025-10-26Aston Villa1-0Manchester CityPremier League
2025-04-22Manchester City2-1Aston VillaPremier League
2024-12-21Aston Villa2-1Manchester CityPremier League
2024-04-03Manchester City4-1Aston VillaPremier League
2023-12-06Aston Villa1-0Manchester CityPremier League
2023-02-12Manchester City3-1Aston VillaPremier League
2022-09-03Aston Villa1-1Manchester CityPremier League
2022-05-22Manchester City3-2Aston VillaPremier League
2021-12-01Aston Villa1-2Manchester CityPremier League

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match