Why this pick: Bournemouth vs Leeds
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Bournemouth 10, Leeds 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Bournemouth vs Leeds: model vs market
| Source | Bournemouth | Draw | Leeds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78% | 15% | 8% |
| Market | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Published | 53% | 24% | 22% |
| Edge | +8% | -3% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.81 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Bournemouth below our published probability: +8.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +16.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Bournemouth vs Leeds odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bournemouth, 21 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 2.25 | 2.08 | -0.17 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Leeds | 3.06 | 3.50 | +0.44 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bournemouth and Leeds expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.72
- Attack rating (Bournemouth / Leeds)
- 1.58 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Bournemouth / Leeds)
- 0.68 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bournemouth vs Leeds score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bournemouth goals. Columns: Leeds goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bournemouth vs Leeds goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bournemouth vs Leeds
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bournemouth | 53% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.08 | |
| Leeds | 22% | 4.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.74 |
| No | 42% | 2.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bournemouth or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Leeds) | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bournemouth win by 2+ | 59% | 1.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Bournemouth and Leeds recent form
Bournemouth
4W 0D 2L
Leeds
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bournemouth at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leeds away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bournemouth at home only, Leeds away only.
Bournemouth vs Leeds head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Bournemouth 0 · draws 2 · Leeds 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Bournemouth | 2-2 | Leeds | Premier League |
| 2025-09-27 | Leeds | 2-2 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Chelsea vs Manchester United — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Manchester City v Brighton — match page 2026-10-31
- Brentford vs Nottingham Forest — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Hull City vs Ipswich 2026-10-31
- Coventry v Sunderland — match page 2026-10-31
- Tottenham vs Crystal Palace — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Aston Villa vs Fulham 2026-10-31
- Liverpool v Arsenal — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Bournemouth, previous: Manchester United – Bournemouth, 2026-10-25
- Leeds, previous: Sunderland vs Leeds prediction