Why this pick: Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Brentford 10, Nottingham Forest 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest: model vs market
| Source | Brentford | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 23% | 32% |
| Market | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Published | 46% | 25% | 28% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.09, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Brentford, 21 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | 2.05 | 2.01 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3.58 | 3.50 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Brentford and Nottingham Forest expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.82
- Attack rating (Brentford / Nottingham Forest)
- 1.27 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Brentford / Nottingham Forest)
- 1.18 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Brentford goals. Columns: Nottingham Forest goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brentford | 46% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Nottingham Forest | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.34 |
| No | 26% | 3.92 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Brentford or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Nottingham Forest) | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | Brentford win by 2+ | 27% | 3.68 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Brentford and Nottingham Forest recent form
Brentford
2W 3D 1L
Nottingham Forest
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Brentford at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nottingham Forest away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Brentford at home only, Nottingham Forest away only.
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Brentford 2 · draws 1 · Nottingham Forest 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Brentford | 0-2 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 2025-08-17 | Nottingham Forest | 3-1 | Brentford | Premier League |
| 2025-05-01 | Nottingham Forest | 0-2 | Brentford | Premier League |
| 2024-12-21 | Brentford | 0-2 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 2024-01-20 | Brentford | 3-2 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 2023-10-01 | Nottingham Forest | 1-1 | Brentford | Premier League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Chelsea vs Manchester United — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Bournemouth vs Leeds 2026-10-31
- Manchester City v Brighton — match page 2026-10-31
- Hull City vs Ipswich 2026-10-31
- Coventry v Sunderland — match page 2026-10-31
- Tottenham vs Crystal Palace — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Aston Villa vs Fulham 2026-10-31
- Liverpool v Arsenal — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Brentford, previous: Hull City vs Brentford: odds and pick
- Nottingham Forest, previous: Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest: odds and pick